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Divisional Round NFL betting trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

January 22, 2022 06:01 AM
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Is this the best NFL weekend of the year? Based on the matchups, it sure looks like we’re in line for a good one. The markets are tight and the lines are efficient, so you need to try and find any edge that you can in order to come to a conclusion.

Perhaps these betting trends for the weekend’s four games will send you in the right direction.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)

This is the only one of the Divisional Round games that is not a rematch. These two teams did not play during the regular season, which could be why this seems to be the least discussed game of the weekend. What is being discussed a lot, however, is how the Titans seem to be the most disrespected No. 1 seed of all-time. We’ll have to wait and see how that part of the narrative plays out.

The Titans were 12-5 SU and 10-7 ATS during the regular season. They finished 9-8 to the Under on totals. With last week’s win and cover, the Bengals improved to 11-7 overall and 11-6-1 ATS, as they’ve quietly been a very profitable team to wager on this season. Cincinnati is 9-8-1 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as a road underdog.
  • Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their previous six games in January.
  • Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last six playoff games.
  • Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their previous five playoff games as an underdog.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals’ last four Saturday games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Bengals’ previous five playoff games.

 

  • Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Titans are 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Titans are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games in January.
  • Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five playoff home games.
  • Under is 8-2 in Titans’ previous 10 playoff games.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings in Tennessee.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee.
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their previous four meetings.

More Bengals and Titans Trends

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 47.5)

Most books have waffled back and forth between 5.5 and 6 now that the wave of Packers money that drove up the line has settled down. The injury to Jimmy Garoppolo remains the biggest story of this game, but some promising practice clips hit the wire on Wednesday and Thursday, so it looks as though he’ll be good to go. We’ll see if that pulls the line back down at all.

The 49ers are now 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS after last week’s outright upset win over the Cowboys. San Francisco was the only underdog to win outright and the only one to cover as well. The Packers come off the bye after compiling a 13-4 SU record and an 11-5-1 ATS mark during the regular season. Both teams were 9-8 to the Under, though the 49ers had a push in there as well.

Trends:

  • 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in January.
  • 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their previous four Divisional Playoffs games.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a road underdog.
  • 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 5-0 in the 49ers’ last five playoff road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in 49ers’ previous seven playoff games.

 

  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Divisional Playoffs games.
  • Packers are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight home games.
  • Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
  • Packers are 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Packers’ previous four playoff games as a favorite.
  • Over is 7-0 in Packers’ last seven playoff games.
  • Over is 6-1 in Packers’ previous seven games overall.

More 49ers and Packers Trends

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48.5)

Sunday’s first game is a rematch of the 34-24 win that the Rams had as a slight underdog back in Week 3. The Rams beat up the Cardinals last week in impressive fashion to improve to 13-5 on the campaign and 9-9 ATS. The game stayed under the total with the 34-11 blowout to give Los Angeles a slight push to the Over at 9-8-1.

The Buccaneers also won in impressive fashion last week, more than doubling up the Eagles. That win moved Tampa Bay to 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS with the home cover. The Bucs are 9-9 on their totals to this point. Injuries could play a part here, so keep an eye on the line.

Trends:

  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC.
  • Rams are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games overall.
  • Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
  • Rams are 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Rams are 8-1 ATS in their previous nine games against the Buccaneers.
  • Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the Buccaneers.

 

  • Over is 6-0 in the Rams’ previous six Divisional Playoffs games.
  • Over is 10-1 in the Rams’ last 11 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 8-1 in the Rams’ previous nine games as a road underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.
  • Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 6-1 in Buccaneers’ last seven playoff games as a favorite.

More Rams and Buccaneers Trends

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 54)

This is the game that everybody is waiting for and one that could be an instant classic. It was one to remember for the Bills the first time around with a 38-20 win over the Chiefs. However, that game was simply revenge for Kansas City’s win in the AFC Championship Game last year.

The Bills sit at 12-6 SU with an 11-7 ATS mark after an easy win and cover last week. The Chiefs had the same to move to 13-5 SU and 9-9 ATS. Kansas City is 11-7 to the Over, while Buffalo has split nine totals right down the middle.

Trends:

  • Bills are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games against the Chiefs.
  • Bills are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against the Chiefs.
  • Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their previous five games overall.
  • Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • Bills are 9-3-2 ATS in their previous 14 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 6-0 in Bills’ last six games as a road underdog.

 

  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their previous six playoff home games.
  • Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
  • Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games as a favorite.
  • Over is 6-0 in Chiefs’ last six games as a favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in Chiefs’ previous four games in January.
  • Over is 6-0 in Chiefs’ last six against the AFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in Chiefs’ previous seven playoff home games.

More Bills and Chiefs Trends

For some historical Divisional Round NFL betting trends, including some real strong angles, check out Steve Makinen’s post from this week’s Point Spread Weekly.

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