NCAAFB Daily Power Ratings

Road Team Power Ratings Effective Strength Bettor Rating
Home Team OL FL Score PR Line Edge Score Proj Edge Score Proj Edge
Thu, Sep 28
107 Jacksonville State -6.5 -7 35 34 21.7 33.8 16.6 36.9
108 Sam Houston State +6.5 +7 28 25.5 +5.9 12.1 +9.6 20.3 -3.7
 
103 Middle Tennessee +6 +6.5 10 31 25.7 59.2 24.2 57.7
104 Western Kentucky -6 -6.5 31 36 -7.7 33.4 -7.7 33.6 -9.4
 
105 Temple +4 +3.5 26 26 25.9 54.2 25.4 52.1
106 Tulsa -4 -3.5 48 30 -6.4 28.4 -2.5 26.7 -1.3
Fri, Sep 29
119 Cincinnati +2.5 -1 0 45 26.3 50.7 23.3 48.2
120 Brigham Young -2.5 +1 0 44 -1.3 24.4 +1.9 25 -1.7
 
308901 Columbia 0 14 14.8 37.8 9.5 33.2
308902 Princeton 0 20.5 -8.3 23 -8.2 23.7 -14.2
 
113 Louisville -3.5 -3 0 51 28.7 55.9 26.8 58.3
114 North Carolina State +3.5 +3 0 45 +2.9 27.3 +1.4 31.5 -4.7
 
115 Louisiana Tech +1 PICK 0 28.5 27 53.2 23.8 53
116 UTEP -1 PICK 0 27.5 -1.7 26.2 +0.9 29.2 -5.4
 
117 #10 Utah +3 +4 0 59 21.6 45.2 22 48.1
118 #19 Oregon State -3 -4 0 56 -4.5 23.6 -2 26.1 -4.1
Sat, Sep 30
308907 Abilene Christian 0 21 27.9 64.3 25 62.8
308908 North Texas 0 31 -12.4 36.4 -8.6 37.9 -12.9
 
308991 Alcorn State 0 9 13.7 32.4 19.4 35.7
308992 Alabama State 0 9.5 -3.3 18.7 -5 16.3 +3.1
 
195 Appalachian State -13 -13.5 0 40 35.8 54.4 31.1 51.3
196 Louisiana-Monroe +13 +13.5 0 23 +14.6 18.7 +17.1 20.2 +10.9
 
161 Arkansas State +1 +1.5 0 23 29.1 58.8 25.6 53.3
162 Massachusetts -1 -1.5 0 24 -1.1 29.7 -0.6 27.8 -2.2
 
171 Arizona State +12.5 +12.5 0 35.5 19.6 48.3 18.3 49.4
172 California -12.5 -12.5 0 47 -13.9 28.7 -9 31.1 -12.8
 
157 Ball State PICK +1 0 27.5 26.6 54.2 28.5 53.9
158 Western Michigan PICK -1 0 24.5 +0.6 27.7 -1.1 25.5 +3
 
185 #12 Alabama -14.5 -14.5 0 66 30.5 48.8 34.1 50.9
186 Mississippi State +14.5 +14.5 0 49 +14.9 18.3 +12.2 16.8 +17.3
 
135 Baylor +11.5 +12 0 45 23.6 59.1 23.3 51.8
136 UCF -11.5 -12 0 53.5 -10 35.5 -11.9 28.6 -5.3
 
123 Bowling Green +23 +22 0 28 17.3 54.4 15.5 52
124 Georgia Tech -23 -22 0 43.5 -19.5 37.2 -19.9 36.6 -21.1
 
193 Boise State +3.5 +3 0 44 26.9 57.8 26.1 54.4
194 Memphis -3.5 -3 0 43 -1.6 31 -4.1 28.3 -2.2
 
308921 Bryant University 0 14 21.8 52.3 19.3 51.4
308922 Rhode Island 0 19 -7.1 30.5 -8.7 32.1 -12.8
 
308963 Bucknell 0 3 11.8 39.9 13.7 38.8
308964 Lafayette 0 13 -13.1 28.1 -16.3 25.1 -11.4
 
151 Buffalo +2 +2.5 0 25 27.7 59.9 29.9 56.4
152 Akron -2 -2.5 0 26.5 -3 32.2 -4.5 26.6 +3.3
 
145 Coastal Carolina +6.5 +6.5 0 38 26.3 57.1 31.5 60.7
146 Georgia Southern -6.5 -6.5 0 39.5 -4.3 30.8 -4.6 29.3 +2.2
 
308945 Colgate 0 3 16.2 44.8 19.3 44.7
308946 Cornell 0 12 -11.3 28.5 -12.3 25.5 -6.2
 
205 Charlotte +22.5 +23.5 0 26.5 14.2 54 15.6 52.9
206 Southern Methodist -22.5 -23.5 0 48 -24.9 39.8 -25.6 37.3 -21.7
 
308987 Chattanooga 0 28 34.9 47.8 26.4 47.6
308988 Wofford 0 9.5 +16.9 12.9 +22 21.2 +5.2
 
125 Clemson -7 -6.5 0 57 26.9 54.6 31.6 55.9
126 Syracuse +7 +6.5 0 51.5 +3.3 27.7 -0.8 24.3 +7.3
 
308937 Drake 0 -3 33.2 64.3 31 54
308938 Morehead State 0 -4.5 -1.2 31.2 +2 23 +8
 
308923 Dartmouth 0 20 20.3 39.6 22.6 40½
308924 Pennsylvania 0 19 -1.1 19.4 +0.9 18 +4.6
 
308911 Duquesne 0 3 22.7 53.2 29.6 55
308912 LIU Post 0 9.5 -8.2 30.5 -7.8 25.4 +4.2
 
213 East Carolina +3 +3.5 0 35 23.1 49.6 25.6 53.8
214 Rice -3 -3.5 0 35 -2.1 26.6 -3.5 28.3 -2.7
 
308997 Eastern Illinois 0 12 25.5 49.4 28.1 50.6
308998 Northwestern State 0 4.5 +4.8 23.9 +1.6 22.5 +5.6
 
309007 Eastern Kentucky 0 22 35.9 63.4 33.8 62.1
309008 North Alabama 0 11.5 +8.4 27.5 +8.4 28.4 +5.4
 
153 Eastern Michigan +8 +7.5 0 27.5 20.9 47.8 21.8 49.7
154 Central Michigan -8 -7.5 0 36.5 -11.9 26.9 -5.9 28 -6.2
 
308935 East Tennessee State 0 7 25.4 60 23 60.6
308936 Samford 0 18.5 -14.1 34.6 -9.2 37.7 -14.7
 
308993 Florida A&M 0 19.5 33 44.6 31.8 42.2
308994 Mississippi Valley State 0 -6.5 +23.4 11.6 +21.4 10.4 +21.4
 
139 #22 Florida +2.5 +1 0 52 21.1 46 23 47.9
140 Kentucky -2.5 -1 0 51 -2.1 24.9 -3.8 24.9 -1.9
 
308941 Fordham 0 17.5 29.3 48.3 26.7 48.7
308942 Georgetown 0 6 +10.1 19 +10.4 22 +4.7
 
308953 Hampton 0 3 18.7 51.1 16.6 50
308954 Richmond 0 18.5 -18.8 32.4 -13.7 33.4 -16.8
 
308981 Harvard 0 23 24.5 59.7 25.5 57.1
308982 Holy Cross 0 33 -10.2 35.3 -10.8 31.7 -6.2
 
169 Hawaii +12 +11 0 25 24.4 60 27.2 57.7
170 UNLV -12 -11 0 34 -11.4 35.6 -11.1 30.5 -3.3
 
189 Houston +9.5 +9 0 40.5 25.6 58.4 22.2 57.2
190 Texas Tech -9.5 -9 0 50.5 -8.6 32.7 -7.1 35 -12.8
 
308909 Howard 0 10.5 27.5 55.1 33.7 56½
308910 Robert Morris 0 3 +4.3 27.6 -0.1 22.9 +10.8
 
308969 Idaho 0 38 31.8 54.1 34.5 59.4
308970 Eastern Washington 0 26.5 +8.3 22.3 +9.5 24.9 +9.6
 
308971 Idaho State 0 8.5 20 55.9 13.8 56.9
308972 Montana 0 27.5 -23 35.9 -15.9 43.1 -29.3
 
181 Illinois PICK PICK 0 46 26.1 52 26.7 51.2
182 Purdue PICK PICK 0 42.5 +1.6 25.9 +0.1 24.6 +2.1
 
308999 Indiana State 0 6.5 21 45.8 24.7 47.3
309000 Murray State 0 7.5 -3.3 24.8 -3.8 22.6 +2.1
 
187 Iowa State +21 +20 0 47 16.7 45.8 17.8 52.7
188 #14 Oklahoma -21 -20 0 63.5 -19 29.1 -12.4 35 -17.2
 
133 Indiana +14 +14.5 0 37.5 18 50.1 20.5 52½
134 Maryland -14 -14.5 0 51.5 -16.3 32.1 -14.1 32.1 -11.6
 
211 #24 Kansas +17.5 +16.5 0 50 18.5 55.4 25.7 66.7
212 #3 Texas -17.5 -16.5 0 66 -19.3 36.9 -18.4 41.1 -15.4
 
308989 Kennesaw State 0 20 34.7 55.3 33.2 56.4
308990 Charleston Southern 0 4 +14 20.6 +14.1 23.3 +9.9
 
309003 Lamar 0 5 27.1 55.7 29.7 55.8
309004 Houston Christian 0 2 +1 28.6 -1.5 26.1 +3.6
 
308929 Lehigh 0 4.5 19.1 51.6 17.7 54½
308930 Monmouth 0 15 -13.7 32.5 -13.4 36.8 -19.1
 
201 #13 LSU -2.5 -2.5 0 61.5 27.9 64.2 31.5 64
202 #20 Ole Miss +2.5 +2.5 0 61 -1.8 36.4 -8.5 32.5 -1
 
308913 Morgan State 0 8.5 20.5 45.6 9.3 41.8
308914 Yale 0 19 -13.4 25.1 -4.5 32.5 -23.2
 
163 #2 Michigan -18 -17 0 63 28.9 41.4 33.3 44.2
164 Nebraska +18 +17 0 43.5 +18.2 12.6 +16.3 11 +22.3
 
203 #23 Missouri -13.5 -13.5 0 48 34.8 57.4 33.7 56.7
204 Vanderbilt +13.5 +13.5 0 35 +11.1 22.7 +12.1 23 +10.7
 
308983 Missouri State 0 20.5 22.1 56.2 22.5 56.4
308984 Southern Illinois 0 34 -16.3 34.2 -12.1 33.9 -11.4
 
155 Miami (OH) -16 -15 0 36.5 35.3 52.4 33.1 51.9
156 Kent State +16 +15 0 17.5 +15.3 17.1 +18.2 18.9 +14.2
 
199 Michigan State +12.5 +11.5 0 40.5 16.1 40.4 15.7 39.2
200 Iowa -12.5 -11.5 0 48.5 -10.9 24.3 -8.2 23.6 -7.9
 
308947 North Carolina A&T 0 8.5 22.9 45.1 31.7 47.1
308948 Norfolk State 0 -1 +7.8 22.2 +0.7 15.4 +16.3
 
143 #11 Notre Dame -5.5 -6 0 62.5 28.3 51.3 35.3 60.7
144 #17 Duke +5.5 +6 0 53 +7.9 23 +5.3 25.5 +9.8
 
177 Nevada +25 +25 0 23 11.6 52.6 11.2 48.4
178 #25 Fresno State -25 -25 0 46.5 -25.5 41 -29.4 37.2 -26
 
309011 Nicholls State 0 13 29.1 52 27.3 50.8
309012 McNeese State 0 8.5 +2.2 23 +6.1 23.6 +3.7
 
183 Northern Illinois +13.5 +13 0 28.5 20.5 50 22.5 52½
184 Toledo -13.5 -13 0 42.5 -16.9 29.6 -9.1 30.1 -7.6
 
165 New Mexico +15 +14 0 24 16 49 12.6 46.3
166 Wyoming -15 -14 0 40 -19.5 33 -17.1 33.7 -21.1
 
149 Old Dominion +13 +14 0 27.5 16.9 48.3 16.6 46.4
150 Marshall -13 -14 0 39.5 -14.1 31.4 -14.5 29.9 -13.3
 
173 #9 Oregon -27.5 -27 0 64 41.7 61.1 41.7 60
174 Stanford +27.5 +27 0 31 +31.9 19.4 +22.3 18.4 +23.3
 
129 Pittsburgh -2.5 -2.5 0 43.5 21.2 41.8 23.1 40.1
130 Virginia Tech +2.5 +2.5 0 38 +2.7 20.6 +0.6 17.1 +6
 
308927 Presbyterian 0 -9 16.8 50.8 14.3 50.9
308928 Butler 0 6.5 -18 34.1 -17.3 36.7 -22.4
 
308975 Portland State 0 17 17.3 65.7 18.2 64.1
308976 Montana State 0 43.5 -30.4 48.5 -31.2 46 -27.8
 
121 #6 Penn State -26.5 -27 0 66 39.6 48.3 39.6 47.3
122 Northwestern +26.5 +27 0 36 +28.6 8.8 +30.8 7.7 +31.8
 
147 South Alabama +3 +2 0 44.5 26.1 52.9 26.8 53.4
148 James Madison -3 -2 0 40 +0.8 26.8 -0.7 26.7 +0.1
 
308967 Stony Brook 0 7 17.3 40 14.6 41.2
308968 Maine 0 10.5 -5.6 22.8 -5.5 26.7 -12.1
 
137 South Carolina +12.5 +12 0 52 31.2 69.9 22 63.2
138 #21 Tennessee -12.5 -12 0 58.5 -9.6 38.7 -7.6 41.2 -19.2
 
308949 South Dakota 0 25.5 12 47.6 12.5 48
308950 North Dakota State 0 42.5 -20.3 35.7 -23.7 35.5 -23
 
308919 San Diego 0 4.5 20.6 46.6 18.1 47.7
308920 Davidson 0 9.5 -7.5 26 -5.3 29.7 -11.6
 
217 San Diego State +11 +10.5 0 35.5 18.8 43.8 18.9 45
218 Air Force -11 -10.5 0 45 -12.4 24.9 -6.1 26.2 -7.3
 
308915 Stetson 0 -4.5 27.4 52.8 26.9 53.8
308916 Marist 0 -6.5 -0.1 25.3 +2.1 26.9 0
 
308985 Southern University 0 13 28.4 46.7 30.4 48
308986 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 -2.5 +13 18.3 +10 17.7 +12.7
 
309001 Tennessee State 0 11.5 19.4 53.7 20 54.1
309002 Tennessee-Martin 0 26 -17.9 34.3 -14.9 34.1 -14.1
 
131 Troy +1.5 +1 0 40 28.5 56 30.2 51.7
132 Georgia State -1.5 -1 0 39 -1.4 27.5 +0.9 21.5 +8.7
 
308961 Towson 0 9 16.7 50.8 12.9 48
308962 New Hampshire 0 29 -23.1 34.2 -17.5 35.1 -22.2
 
209 Texas A&M -6.5 -6 0 58 31.4 56.9 33.5 59
210 Arkansas +6.5 +6 0 50.5 +7.8 25.5 +5.9 25.5 +8
 
197 Texas State -7 -6.5 0 37 36.2 64.4 30.4 63.8
198 Southern Miss +7 +6.5 0 29.5 +5 28.3 +7.9 33.5 -3.1
 
207 UAB +21 +21.5 0 31.5 16.5 56.9 20.5 57.7
208 Tulane -21 -21.5 0 48 -19.8 40.5 -24 37.2 -16.7
 
309009 Central Arkansas 0 32 33.1 55.9 33.3 58.9
309010 Southern Utah 0 19 +10.9 22.8 +10.3 25.6 +7.7
 
309013 UC Davis 0 28 36.8 56.4 37.6 58.1
309014 Cal Poly 0 6 +20.2 19.6 +17.1 20.6 +17
 
191 #1 Georgia -14.5 -14.5 0 67 25.8 45.3 34.1 51.4
192 Auburn +14.5 +14.5 0 52 +12.8 19.5 +6.3 17.4 +16.7
 
159 Louisiana-Lafayette +12 +11 0 36.5 22.6 53.3 18.8 54
160 Minnesota -12 -11 0 46 -11.8 30.7 -8.1 35.2 -16.4
 
308959 North Dakota 0 31 17.9 58 20.7 58
308960 South Dakota State 0 48 -19.4 40.1 -22.2 37.3 -16.6
 
167 #8 USC -21 -21.5 0 64.5 44.4 69.7 45.6 75½
168 Colorado +21 +21.5 0 44.5 +19.5 25.4 +19 30 +15.6
 
179 South Florida +4 +3 0 36 26.7 55.1 22.5 53
180 Navy -4 -3 0 33 -3 28.5 -1.8 30.5 -8
 
127 Utah State -5 -4 0 34.5 30.5 55.7 28.5 54.8
128 Connecticut +5 +4 0 26 +6.4 25.2 +5.4 26.4 +2.1
 
141 Virginia +3.5 +3.5 0 36 26.8 58.4 24.7 52.9
142 Boston College -3.5 -3.5 0 37.5 -4 31.6 -4.8 28.2 -3.5
 
308965 Villanova 0 26 25.9 52.2 25.2 50.2
308966 Albany 0 22 +1.3 26.4 -0.5 25.1 +0.1
 
308979 Virginia Military Institute 0 10.5 18.1 45½ 12.9 45½
308980 Mercer 0 19.5 -11.8 27.5 -9.4 32.7 -19.8
 
308903 Wagner 0 -4 -0.3 44.7 -1.7 43.4
308904 Rutgers 0 44 -50.3 45 -45.3 45.1 -46.8
 
175 #7 Washington -18 -19 0 64.5 38.6 61.2 42.4 68.9
176 Arizona +18 +19 0 44 +18.6 22.6 +16 26.5 +15.9
 
308957 Weber State 0 28.5 34.8 50.1 36.4 50.2
308958 Northern Colorado 0 6.5 +20.9 15.3 +19.6 13.8 +22.6
 
308943 Western Carolina 0 28 38 54.8 32.1 53.3
308944 Citadel 0 -3.5 +29.5 16.9 +21.1 21.2 +10.9
 
308951 William & Mary 0 30.5 24.4 42.9 25 42½
308952 Elon 0 21.5 +6.8 18.5 +5.9 17.5 +7.5
 
215 West Virginia +11 +14 0 46.5 20.3 49.3 20 53.4
216 TCU -11 -14 0 52.5 -11.1 29 -8.7 33.4 -13.4
 
308955 Youngstown State 0 30.5 27.3 54.8 23.7 56.4
308956 Northern Iowa 0 32 -4.2 27.5 -0.2 32.8 -9.1

Steve Makinen's Strength Ratings

Here is an explanation of each of the three Strength Ratings offered each week for every game in the various sports we cover:

The Power Ratings (PR) are Steve's own manually adjusted ratings updated after every game based upon analysis of live action and box scores. The Power Rating line is reflective of each team’s rating and factors in home-field advantage as well as any injury or situational adjustments.

The Effective Strength Ratings (EffStr or ES) are purely statistical ratings, using the teams’ key stats against schedule strength and their previous opponents’ averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.

The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.

Key points:

1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, Steve has already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, Steve has not, so if that player ends up missing then you need to account for those on your own.

2) Each morning, Steve goes back and makes postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.

3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team.

How to use these Ratings

You want to compare the three different strength ratings to the actual line when it is posted.

If there is a difference of 3 points or more between a point spread generated by the Rating vs. the actual line posted at the South Point, we have marked the game with an checkmark.

Your job as a handicapper is to understand why the actual line and the Strength Ratings are different.

The question you want to ask yourself: Did one of the Strength Ratings identify an opportunity that the betting market missed? If so, you may want to consider that play.

Questions? Email [email protected]

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