NCAAFB Daily Power Ratings
Steve Makinen's Strength Ratings
Here is an explanation of each of the three Strength Ratings offered each week for every game in the various sports we cover:
The Power Ratings (PR) are Steve's own manually adjusted ratings updated after every game based upon analysis of live action and box scores. The Power Rating line is reflective of each team’s rating and factors in home-field advantage as well as any injury or situational adjustments.
The Effective Strength Ratings (EffStr or ES) are purely statistical ratings, using the teams’ key stats against schedule strength and their previous opponents’ averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.
The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.
1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, Steve has already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, Steve has not, so if that player ends up missing then you need to account for those on your own.
2) Each morning, Steve goes back and makes postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.
3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team.
How to use these Ratings
You want to compare the three different strength ratings to the actual line when it is posted.
If there is a difference of 3 points or more between a point spread generated by the Rating vs. the actual line posted at the South Point, we have marked the game with an checkmark.
Your job as a handicapper is to understand why the actual line and the Strength Ratings are different.
The question you want to ask yourself: Did one of the Strength Ratings identify an opportunity that the betting market missed? If so, you may want to consider that play.
Questions? Email [email protected]