Conference tournament trends

March 8, 2022 05:49 PM
USATSI_17585740

A couple of weeks ago, I started a three-part series on betting systems for every conference tournament in college basketball. If you missed last week’s report, I am re-running trends from the seven conferences that started their tournaments over the last seven days (ACC, America East, Big West, Conference USA, MAAC, Patriot, WAC) and are still in action. Here are the key angles for conference tournaments still being played: 

ACC

— Round 2 favorites are 14-6 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) since 2017. Interestingly, outright winners are 20-0 ATS in Round 2.

— Semifinal underdogs are 11-16 SU but 19-5-3 ATS (79.1%) since 2007.

America East

— Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinal round are 8-2-1 ATS (77.8%) in the last 11 games.

American Athletic

— Since 2016, favorites of 7.5 points or fewer are just 15-15 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%).

— In the quarterfinals, underdogs of 5 points or fewer that played in the opening round are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run against teams that had a bye.

— The last six semifinal favorites are 0-6 ATS (0%).

Atlantic 10

— Teams off a bye are 26-4 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) since 2016.

— Favorites in the first three rounds are 41-11 SU and 31-19-1 ATS (62%) since 2016.

Big 12

— Underdogs in the opening round are on an 11-1 ATS surge (91.7%).

— Iowa State is on a run of 15-0-1 ATS (100%). Texas Tech, on the other hand, is 0-9 ATS (0%).

Big East

— Quarterfinal teams that had a Round 1 bye are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) against teams that played in Round 1. 

— Double-digit favorites in the quarterfinals are 11-1 ATS (91.7%) since 2006.

— Semifinal underdogs are 10-2 ATS (83.3%) since 2015.

— Nine of the last 11 championship games have gone Under (81.8%).

Big Sky

— Single-digit favorites are 34-8 SU and 31-11 ATS (73.8%) since 2015, including 6-0 SU and ATS in the championship game.

Big Ten

— Games with totals below 129 are 12-4-1 to the Over (75%).

— Teams off a bye are 12-6 SU but only 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%) since 2018.

— Semifinal favorites are 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS (69.2%) since 2014.

Big West

— Keep an eye on the numbers 7 and 7.5. Since 2014, favorites of 7.5 points or more are 15-0 SU and 9-5-1 ATS (64.3%), while underdogs of 7 points or fewer are 23-10-3 ATS (69.7%).

— Semifinal favorites are just 6-8 SU and 3-9-2 ATS (25%) since 2014, although UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine won in that role last year.

Conference USA

— Favorites of 7 points or fewer are 31-13 ATS (70.4%) since 2014.

— The Under is 21-7 (75%) since 2018.

Ivy League

— Six of the first nine games went Over (66.7%) the total.

— Favorites of 4 points or more are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS (80%).

MAAC

— In the last 13 games with a total of 154 points or higher, the Under has gone 12-1 (92.3%).

— Favorites of 2 points or fewer are 10-2 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) since 2014, with the Under going 9-3 (75%) in those games.

Mid-American

— Favorites of 4.5 points or more are 25-3 SU since 2017 but a more modest 15-12-1 ATS (55.6%). Favorites of 4 points or fewer are 5-11 SU and 3-13 ATS (18.8%).

Mid-Eastern Athletic

— Teams that played a game in the tournament are 15-6 ATS (71.4%) against teams coming off a bye.

— Underdogs of 4 points or fewer in the first two rounds are 12-1 SU and 12-1 ATS (92.3%).

Mountain West

— Favorites of 5.5 points or fewer are 33-14 ATS (70.2%) since 2011.

Pac-12

— Favorites of 4.5 points or fewer are 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) over the last eight years.

— First-round favorites are 5-14 ATS (26.3%) over the last five years.

Patriot League

— Double-digit underdogs are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since 2012, although the last 13 have lost outright.

— Quarterfinal games are 19-9 (67.9%) to the Over in the last seven years.

SEC

— In games with lines of 7 points or more, favorites are 22-5 SU and 17-8-2 ATS (68%) since 2014. In that same set of 27 games, the Under is 20-7 (74.1%).

— Kentucky has lost its last two tournament games after a run of 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS.

Southland

— Favorites in the championship game are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) since 2008.

— In the last 12 semifinal games, the Over is 10-1-1 (90.9%).

SWAC

— Favorites in the championship game are 9-0 SU but 1-8 ATS (11.1%) since 2012.

— Quarterfinal favorites are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) over the last two years.

Western Athletic

— Favorites are 39-4 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) over the last seven years, including 21-9 ATS (70%) on single-digit lines.

— Favorites in the championship game were on a 9-0 SU and ATS run before Grand Canyon (+ 1) won last year.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Maximize free bets from sportsbooks. Use on ML underdogs.

Follow The Money: NEVER cross the moneyline (0) in teasers. 15 ties since 1990 (8,240 games). That's .18% of games

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Wes Reynolds: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs

Matt Youmans: Wisconsin +18 vs Ohio State

 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-22_at_6.24.17_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close