Saturday CFB Week 13 Sharp Report

November 26, 2022 12:30 AM
irish1

3 p.m. ET: Louisville at Kentucky (-3, 43)

Louisville (7-4, ranked 25th) has won five of their last six games and just took down NC State 25-10, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kentucky (6-5) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Georgia 16-6 but covered as 22.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Kentucky at home laying the short spread. However, despite receiving 78% of bets, we've seen Kentucky fall from -3.5 to -3. This signals pro money grabbing the points with road dog Louisville. The Cardinals have value as a short road dog +4 or less (roughly 54% ATS over the past decade). Both teams are giving up roughly 20 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Louisville is averaging 29 PPG compared to just 22 PPG for Kentucky. We could be in for a low scoring game here as the total has fallen from 43.5 to 43. The under is receiving 20% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. Kentucky is 10-1 to the under. Louisville is 7-4 to the under. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon (-3, 57) at Oregon State

Oregon (9-2, ranked 9th) is coming off a 20-17 win over Utah, covering as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, Oregon State (8-3, ranked 21st) has won two straight and just crushed Arizona State 31-7, easily covering as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with the Ducks. However, despite 79% of bets backing Oregon, this line hasn't budged off of 3. Anytime it briefly creeps up to -3.5, respected money grabs Oregon State plus the hook, causing the line to fall right back down to 3. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on the Beavers, with pros grabbing the points with the home conference dog. Oregon State is only receiving 21% of bets but 51% of money, a notable wiseguy bet discrepancy in their favor. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame at USC (-4.5, 63)

Notre Dame (8-3, ranked 15th) has won five straight games and just crushed Boston College 44-0, easily covering as 20-point home favorites. Meanwhile, USC (10-1, ranked 6th) has won four straight games and just edged UCLA 48-45, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 6-point home favorite. We've seen USC fall from -6 to -4.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with road dog Notre Dame. The Irish are receiving 56% of bets but 70% of money, indicating moderate public support but also heavy smart money in their favor. USC has the edge on offense, averaging 43 PPG compared to 31 PPG for Notre Dame. But the Irish have the better defense, allowing 20 PPG while USC gives up 26 PPG. The total has ticked up slightly from 62 to 63. Notre Dame is 6-4-1 to the over while USC is 8-3 to the over. 

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