Week 4 college football power ratings and betting lines

Adam Burke shares his weekly college football power ratings

The 2023 college football season looks like it’s just going to be one of those years. There may not be an elite team in the sport and there have been some very surprising results to this point. We’ve also seen some teams look great one week and look absolutely awful the next week.

The dispersal of talent around the country is a big part of the equation. With the NIL, transfer portal, and college football’s version of free agency, recruiting may not mean as much as it did in the past because you can just go out and buy players that another program developed. It certainly helps to bring in as many top players as possible, but talented dudes are getting fresh starts every year and the talent pool is widening.

It can be very difficult trying to rate teams with the variance from week to week. Missouri nearly lost to Middle Tennessee in Week 2 and then was the better team against a Kansas State crew that crushed Troy the week before. (Troy then lost to a watered-down James Madison team at home)

Florida State scored 111 points against LSU and Southern Miss before getting outgained 457-340 (6.0 to 5.8 YPP) against a Boston College team that lost to Northern Illinois, who lost to Southern Illinois and got soundly beaten by Nebraska.

Nevada lost 33-6 to Idaho two weeks ago before taking Kansas to the wire with the Jayhawks over a three-touchdown road favorite. The box score certainly looked a lot better than the score for Kansas, but still.

Texas beat Alabama on the road in Tuscaloosa and it was a 10-10 game against Wyoming after three quarters before the Cowboys wore down.

The team to beat for the last 15 years has seemingly been the Crimson Tide and they mustered 14 points and played two quarterbacks (who were both awful) in the win over South Florida, but we know there’s a ton of talent there and it needs to be respected.

Colorado should have lost to Colorado State, but Jay Norvell’s bad coaching decisions opened the door and the Buffaloes romped through it. That was a Colorado State team that gave up 50 to Washington State and held Colorado to seven offensive points through three quarters.

These are just some of the examples through four weeks. More are coming. With the number of games and the number of teams, it is inevitable. The trick is to figure out how to properly value the teams when those games come along and it is not easy.

Not only do you have to roll with the punches of the teams, but also try to think about the past results. Some wins that looked impressive at that time don’t look that impressive now. Some programs that have consistently had success are not having it this season and may be worse than originally thought. Other programs are soaring higher than anticipated, so not only are you living in the present, but you’re also rehashing the past.

I feel like I’ve been bobbing and weaving with my Power Ratings a lot. Some teams have consistently been moved up or down, but I feel like I’m just rearranging the furniture with some teams. I’ve bumped them up, slid them down, bumped them up. The truth for most teams at this point lies somewhere in between, but it has been a bit of a struggle trying to ascertain what’s real and what isn’t thus far.

Here are my Week 4 College Football Power Ratings:

Here are my Week 4 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Navy +2.5, Maryland +2.5, Army +2, Georgia Southern +3, Boston College +3, Old Dominion +2.5, Liberty +5, Missouri +2, Central Michigan +1, Rutgers +3.5, FIU +3, South Florida +3, Northwestern +3, Ohio State +1.5, Washington +3, Charlotte +1.5, San Jose State +3.5, Florida +2, Miami (OH) +3.5, UNLV +5, Louisiana +2.5, Syracuse +3, BYU +2.5, Clemson +1.5, Oregon +1.5, Fresno State +4, Nevada +1.5, Texas State +3, Miami (FL) +4, Wyoming +2.5, Colorado State +3, UMass +3, Rice +2, TCU +1.5, Texas Tech +3 (if they switch to QB Behren Morton), UCLA +3

Down: Memphis -3.5, Virginia -2, UTSA -4, Wisconsin -2, Florida State -3, Wake Forest -2, Buffalo -2, Kansas State -3.5, Mississippi State -4, Notre Dame -1.5, Virginia Tech -2, UConn -5.5, Alabama -3, Duke -1.5, Georgia -2, Oklahoma State -1.5, Tulsa -3, UL Monroe -2.5, Michigan State -3.5, Georgia State -1.5, Tennessee -3.5, Cincinnati -2.5, Louisiana Tech -7 (adj + Bachmeier inj), Troy -4, Northern Illinois -1.5, UAB -3, Ole Miss -2, Pitt -3, Kentucky -4, Purdue -2, Florida Atlantic -7.5, Hawaii -2, Houston -2.5, Colorado -4, Kansas -2.5, Baylor -2, Stanford -3, Michigan -2, Texas -1.5, Penn State -2, East Carolina -3, Toledo -2.5, Temple -2, Akron -2, Southern Miss -6, Arizona State -12 (adj + QB cluster inj)

Injury: UTSA -5 (Harris) (if out)

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Arizona State -12: I’m not sure I’ve ever really seen a situation like this unfold over the course of a week. I was going to downgrade ASU anyway, as they have a 24-21 win over Southern Utah and two losses by a combined 56-15 count to Oklahoma State and Fresno State. To follow through on what I talked about earlier, Oklahoma State just got pounded into submission by South Alabama.

So, ASU stinks, but Jalen Rashada is out 4-6 weeks. Trenton Bourguet, who started for Rashada, got hurt and then backup Drew Pyne also got hurt. That put the Sun Devils down to their fourth-string QB. Rashada may actually end up redshirting now. I’m not sure if this is even the right number, but I went from +18 to +30 against USC with the market at 33, so it seems reasonable.

Florida Atlantic -7.5: Another team I was very wrong about with first-year head coach Tom Herman. This is a ratings adjustment, but QB Casey Thompson also hurt his knee and it doesn’t sound great. Thompson wasn’t playing super well anyway, but Herman hand-picked him in the transfer portal and recruited him to Texas.

Louisiana Tech -7: I’m not sure this is a big enough adjustment, as this team is just awful. QB Hank Bachmeier also got hurt, but he wasn’t playing well anyway, so I believe this is my third adjustment down on the Bulldogs.

Southern Miss -6: I gave Southern Miss the benefit of the doubt for getting throttled by what seemed to be an awesome Florida State team in Week 2. After the Seminoles had issues with Boston College and Southern Miss scored three points against Tulane, I felt it necessary to make a big adjustment. They do step way down in class this week against Arkansas State and my numbers do say to bet on them.

UConn -5.5: It felt like UConn was moving in the right direction last season, but those positive vibes are nowhere to be found now. Losing at home to FIU is embarrassing, even if FIU has improved over the last few weeks. My line was too high last week and maybe isn’t low enough this week for the Huskies.

UNLV +5: I sensed something was wrong when my line against Michigan was entirely too large, but I had a line in the ballpark for Bowling Green’s game against the Wolverines. UNLV’s outright win over Vanderbilt was confirmation that I didn’t have the Rebels properly rated.

Liberty +5: I was deliberately low on Liberty coming into the season because I was concerned that they didn’t have a Grayson McCall to execute the Jamey Chadwell offense. As it turns out, Kaidon Salter has done just fine and the Flames have picked it up quickly.

UTSA -4*: This one has an asterisk because the health of Frank Harris is part of the equation here. I clearly overrated and overvalued this team coming into the season, but Harris is now dealing with turf toe. This is a four-point adjustment for the team. If Harris is out, I’d add another five-point drop.

Kentucky -4: Another team that I was simply too high on entering the season. I’ve been underwhelmed by Devin Leary, who I expected to come in and look dominant with OC Liam Coen back. Will Levis became a first-round pick because he got on scouts’ radars under Coen in 2021. I figured a guy who once got Heisman buzz in Leary would’ve looked better. Kentucky’s played well, but they haven’t looked up to the expectations of my power ratings, as I regularly had their lines higher than the market.

Troy -4: Same story here. Troy brought back a good bit from a really strong Group of Five team last season, but they haven’t looked the part at all.

Colorado -4: Based on my line for Oregon/Colorado, this isn’t enough. It was really ugly for three quarters from the Buffaloes last week and now it appears they’ll be without two-way star Travis Hunter. I guess I could’ve gone harder here, but I had this line 12.5 going into Week 3, so the fact that I’m up to 18 seems like a reasonable adjustment.

Fresno State +4: Fresno State has been paid to go win at Purdue and Arizona State this season. It’s entirely possible that both of those teams are bad, but Mikey Keene seems like a dude and the drop-off from Jake Haener is not that high. Jeff Tedford is also a damn good offensive mind.

Miami (FL) +4: Sometimes I make adjustments on my own accord and other times I want to follow the market, who knows more than I do. The Hurricanes have a super-lofty perception right now. The ‘Canes defense has a few top-90 NFL Draft picks and Tyler Van Dyke looks healthy and in control of the offense.

Tennessee -3.5: Hendon Hooker is not walking through that door. While Joe Milton can throw a ball 90 yards, he’s struggling to throw it nine yards to guys on his team. That’s a really pedestrian Florida team that convincingly beat the Vols last week.

Quick notes on other adjustments:

Alabama -3: Nick Saban simply has to go back to Jalen Milroe this week against Ole Miss. I think the defense is still fine, but we’ll find out this week against Jaxson Dart and the Rebels.

Washington +3: Michael Penix Jr. is a DUDE. Kalen DeBoer is also pretty damn impressive. I know Michigan State had a lot going on heading into last week’s game, but that was a ridiculous first half from the Huskies before they packed it in.

San Jose State +3.5: My line was all sorts of wrong for the Toledo game, but the Spartans held Dequan Finn under 100 passing yards playing a long way from home in a very unfamiliar setting against the team that is supposed to be the class of the MAC. The Mountain West doesn’t look great this season, but this team is firmly on my radar.

Here are my Week 4 lines:

Games to consider based on my Power Ratings (by date/rotation number):

NC State (-9 / -12) at Virginia: The Brennan Armstrong revenge game. Or the Robert Anae revenge game. Whatever you want, but Virginia looked awful against Maryland and I’m really u happy with myself for not laying that number. I think this is a good spot for NC State on a short week against a reeling opponent and the Wolfpack got to get right against a FCS opponent last week.

Boise State (-7 / -11.5) at San Diego State: I still think San Diego State is terrible. I’m just not sure how good Boise State is. North Dakota is a pretty good FCS team from an excellent conference and Boise State played very well in that game.

Southern Miss (-6 / -11.5) at Arkansas State: As I mentioned above, Southern Miss goes from playing Florida State (4th) and Tulane (31st) in my power ratings to Arkansas State, who is 131st out of 131 FBS teams. If the Golden Eagles can’t take advantage of the matchup this week, they’re going to get another huge drop.

TCU (-6 / -9.5) vs. SMU: This is a huge rivalry game in the DFW metro. I think people really soured on TCU from what happened against Colorado, especially in light of Colorado’s last two performances, but the Horned Frogs nearly outgained Houston by 300 yards. They left some points on the field. SMU hasn’t really impressed me and I’m not sure they have the firepower to keep up in this one.

Missouri (-6.5 / -11) vs. Memphis: This is a neutral-site game in St. Louis, so we’ll see what the turnout is like for the two teams. Columbia is under two hours and Memphis is over four, so I would think it’s a bit of a pro-Missouri crowd. Memphis is really poorly coached and Ryan Silverfield is on his last legs there. I wasn’t high at all on Missouri last week, didn’t understand the line move, and lost with Kansas State. Brady Cook is dealing with a sprained knee, so there’s that, but I think Memphis just isn’t very good.

South Alabama (-14.5 / -21) vs. Central Michigan: CMU gave up 538 yards in the 45-42 win to New Hampshire two weeks ago and has been soundly beaten by two FBS foes. South Alabama has an explosive offense and I think the defense is underrated. I like them here, even if this is a pretty big number.

Texas (-14.5 / -20.5) vs. Baylor: I’m concerned at how many big overlays I have, but I didn’t really downgrade Texas much from last week and I’ve punished Baylor a few times. Sawyer Robertson has really not played well, so I’ll keep an eye on this one to see if Blake Shapen comes back and maybe that’s why I have such a disconnect in my numbers.

Liberty (-11 / -16.5) vs. FIU: Another one with a big road favorite that I think is underpriced. FIU is more than a touchdown worse than Buffalo, who Liberty hung a 50-burger on in Western NY last weekend. Maybe I haven’t given FIU enough credit for the wins over Maine, North Texas, and UConn, but it’s entirely possible that UNT and UConn are awful and Maine comfortably outgained FIU in the 14-12 loss.

This will be something of a make-or-break week for my numbers. If I’m wrong on these games with five and six-point overlays, major changes will come next week.

If you ever have questions about the power ratings process, you can find me on X as @SkatingTripods or email aburke [at] vsin [dot] com.