Week 3 college football picks and predictions from Adam Burke

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com Managing Editor) 

September 14, 2023 06:50 PM

Week 3 best bets for Kansas State vs. Missouri and Louisiana vs. UAB

It has been a busy week here at VSiN, as we’ve had picks, predictions, and college football analysis rolling in on the regular. Everything can be seen in our Week 3 Hub and we keep adding to it as new pieces are published. That Hub does include my College Football Power Ratings, which come out on Sunday evenings.

Keep in mind that I’m also looking at the weeknight games separately, so the best bets are going to come from Saturday exclusively. We’re just two short weeks away from Conference USA games on Tuesdays as well, so I’ll be looking at those matchups when we get to them.

College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | College Football Week 3 Hub

Here are my favorite picks for Week 3:

(odds as of September 14, 5:00 p.m. PT)

Kansas State Wildcats (-4, 47.5) at Missouri Tigers

I have looked around everywhere to see if Kansas State QB Will Howard is hurt and I haven’t found anything, so I don’t understand why this line is dropping. I even though -6 was a little low, as I have lined 7.5 in my Power Ratings. Kansas State just took it to what I believe is a good Troy team. Missouri, meanwhile, tried as hard as possible to lose to a Middle Tennessee State team that I have as a double-digit underdog against Troy on a neutral field.

The Tigers mustered just 4.86 yards per play against MTSU last week, while Kansas State had 5.67 against Troy. While the Missouri defense held firm and only allowed 4.38 yards per play, the Wildcats defense only allowed 4.33 against a better opponent. Maybe I have these two teams rated wrong, but this is too cheap of a line and I think Kansas State is probably the second-best team in the Big 12, even if I do have Oklahoma power-rated one point higher. A 3.5 might show up here with the way that this line is trending, but -4 is plenty good enough in my opinion.

Pick: Kansas State -4 (would play to -6)

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at UAB Blazers (-2.5, 59.5)

The Old Dominion Monarchs are not known for offense, but they scored 38 points on just 54 offensive plays against Louisiana last week while averaging 7.26 yards per play. After the drop-off that we saw last season from Michael Desormeaux’s team, I’m sensing that we could have another one down in the Bayou this year.

UAB had some questions to answer coming into the season with the losses of leading passer Dylan Hopkins and running back DeWayne McBride, who actually ran for over 1,700 yards. While the level of competition hasn’t been terribly impressive, UAB has five rushing touchdowns and 4.4 yards per carry to this point. However, the story for the Blazers is QB Jacob Zeno, who has completed 84.5% of his passes with a 5/1 TD/INT ratio. He’s also only taken one sack and it was for just two yards.

I don’t think Louisiana can create many explosive plays on offense here and the defense will have its hands full with a way more efficient passing attack. This one has gradually moved towards my line of -5 in favor of the Blazers and I think it will get to 3 before kickoff, so hop on this one while -2.5 is still available.

Pick: UAB -2.5 (would play to -3.5)

San Jose State Spartans at Toledo Rockets (-7, 56.5)

DraftKings has the low number in the market at 56.5, but I still think 57 or 57.5 is fine for this one. While I don’t make my own totals numbers, I think we’ll get points in the Glass Bowl here. San Jose State has allowed well over seven yards per play to USC and Oregon State. While Toledo doesn’t have a Caleb Williams and isn’t on the same level as Oregon State, I would still expect Dequan Finn to move the ball this week.

The Rockets had over 400 yards against Illinois and then put a thumping on Texas Southern last week with 50 points in the first half and 10 total touchdowns. San Jose State will have the best passing game that the Rockets have seen this season behind Chevan Cordeiro and I would anticipate that SJSU will move the ball. They moved the ball to the tune of six yards per play against USC and this is a MAC defense they’re facing in Week 3.

Pick: Over 56.5 (would play to 58.5)

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