Week 14 college football power rankings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 28, 2022 12:44 AM
USATSI_19509094

Week 14 Power Rankings, Ratings and Odds

There are only 10 conference championship games plus a rescheduled Akron vs. Buffalo game with the Bulls vying for bowl eligibility coming up this week. Only 84 of the 131 FBS teams still have games left to play. There are 41 bowl games after conference championships and Week 15 is reserved for Army vs. Navy, where neither team can reach bowl eligibility unless the Black Knights get a waiver from the NCAA for having two wins over FCS teams this season. It does look like we’ll have at least a couple of 5-7 teams bowling based on a lack of available programs with six wins.

I still do my power ratings for all 131 teams, though, because I use my end-of-season numbers as a guide for the upcoming season. Perhaps that carries a lot less weight with the transfer portal and all of the offseason craziness, but I still like to know where a team started, where it ended and how it looks going into the following season.

I’ll write up some parting thoughts on power ratings when I publish my bowl numbers, which will be subject to change as players sit out or opt to transfer and head coaches and coordinators are moving all around. We’ve already seen the coaching carousel heat up, with Willie Fritz to Georgia Tech, Luke Fickell to Wisconsin, Kenny Dillingham to Arizona State and the abrupt resignation of David Shaw at Stanford. Teams will be losing coordinators for some of these important games or at least have some noteworthy distractions.

Take a team like Tulane, for example. The Green Wave host the AAC Championship Game this week with Fritz already named the head coach at Georgia Tech. But, there’s obviously tons of motivation to win a conference crown. It’s the game after this one that you worry about, but you know it is a distraction for the players. Those things are not accounted for at all in a raw power rating, but absolutely should be part of the handicap.

Here are my Power Ratings for Week 14:

Rank

Team

Conference

PR

HFA

1

Georgia

SEC

97

3.5

2

Alabama

SEC

92

3.5

3

Michigan

Big Ten

91.5

3

4

Ohio State

Big Ten

91.5

3.5

5

Texas

Big 12

85.5

2

6

TCU

Big 12

84.5

2

7

USC

Pac-12

84

2

8

Utah

Pac-12

84

3.5

9

Florida State

ACC

83.5

2

10

Kansas State

Big 12

82.5

2

11

Tennessee

SEC

82.5

2.5

12

LSU

SEC

81.5

2.5

13

Oregon

Pac-12

81

3

14

Washington

Pac-12

81

2

15

Penn State

Big Ten

80.5

2.5

16

UCLA

Pac-12

80

2

17

Clemson

ACC

79

3.5

18

Ole Miss

SEC

79

2

19

Notre Dame

Independent

78.5

3.5

20

Baylor

Big 12

78

2

21

Mississippi State

SEC

78

2.5

22

Oregon State

Pac-12

78

2

23

Arkansas

SEC

77

2

24

Florida

SEC

76.5

3

25

Kentucky

SEC

76

2

26

Illinois

Big Ten

75.5

1.5

27

Washington State

Pac-12

75.5

3

28

Oklahoma

Big 12

75

3.5

29

Texas Tech

Big 12

75

2

30

Minnesota

Big Ten

74

2

31

Missouri

SEC

74

2.5

32

Auburn

SEC

73.5

3

33

Iowa State

Big 12

73.5

2.5

34

Louisville

ACC

73.5

2

35

North Carolina

ACC

73

2

36

Wake Forest

ACC

73

2.5

37

South Carolina

SEC

72.5

2

38

Wisconsin

Big Ten

72.5

2

39

NC State

ACC

72

3

40

New Mexico

Mountain West

72

1

41

Tulane

AAC

72

3

42

UTSA

Conference USA

72

2

43

Pitt

ACC

71.5

2

44

Boise State

Mountain West

71

2.5

45

Kansas

Big 12

71

1

46

Purdue

Big Ten

71

2

47

Fresno State

Mountain West

70.5

2.5

48

BYU

Independent

70

2

49

Duke

ACC

70

2

50

Maryland

Big Ten

70

2

51

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

69.5

3.5

52

Iowa

Big Ten

69.5

3

53

James Madison

Sun Belt

69.5

2

54

Marshall

Sun Belt

69.5

2

55

Oklahoma State

Big 12

69.5

3

56

UCF

AAC

69.5

3.5

57

Houston

AAC

69

2

58

South Alabama

Sun Belt

69

2

59

West Virginia

Big 12

68.5

2.5

60

Western Kentucky

Conference USA

68.5

2

61

California

Pac-12

68

2

62

East Carolina

AAC

68

1.5

63

SMU

AAC

68

3.5

64

Arizona State

Pac-12

67.5

2.5

65

Memphis

AAC

67.5

3.5

66

Texas A&M

SEC

67

3.5

67

UAB

Conference USA

67

3.5

68

Air Force

Mountain West

66.5

2.5

69

Cincinnati

AAC

66.5

3.5

70

Syracuse

ACC

66.5

2

71

Toledo

MAC

66.5

2.5

72

Troy

Sun Belt

66.5

2

73

Georgia State

Sun Belt

66

2

74

Michigan State

Big Ten

66

2

75

Arizona

Pac-12

65.5

2

76

Vanderbilt

SEC

64.5

1

77

Georgia Tech

ACC

64

2

78

North Texas

Conference USA

64

2

79

Navy

AAC

63.5

2

80

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

63

2.5

81

Louisiana

Sun Belt

63

3

82

Nebraska

Big Ten

63

1.5

83

San Jose State

Mountain West

63

2

84

San Diego State

Mountain West

62.5

2

85

Army

Independent

61.5

3

86

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

61.5

2

87

Stanford

Pac-12

61.5

2

88

Virginia

ACC

61

3

89

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

60

2

90

Miami (FL)

ACC

60

2.5

91

Utah State

Mountain West

60

2

92

Indiana

Big Ten

59

2

93

Tulsa

AAC

59

2

94

UNLV

Mountain West

59

1

95

Ohio

MAC

58.5

2

96

Virginia Tech

ACC

58.5

2

97

Florida Atlantic

Conference USA

58

3

98

Ball State

MAC

57.5

2

99

Kent State

MAC

57.5

2.5

100

Liberty

Independent

57

3.5

101

Northwestern

Big Ten

57

2

102

Temple

AAC

57

2

103

Old Dominion

Sun Belt

56.5

2

104

Bowling Green

MAC

56

1

105

Buffalo

MAC

56

3.5

106

Wyoming

Mountain West

56

2.5

107

Louisiana-Monroe

Sun Belt

55

2

108

Rutgers

Big Ten

55

1.5

109

Texas State

Sun Belt

55

1.5

110

Eastern Michigan

MAC

54.5

2

111

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

54.5

2.5

112

Rice

Conference USA

54.5

1

113

UTEP

Conference USA

54.5

1

114

Boston College

ACC

54

2

115

Miami (OH)

MAC

53.5

3

116

Central Michigan

MAC

53

2.5

117

Colorado

Pac-12

52.5

2

118

UConn

Independent

52.5

1

119

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

52

2

120

Hawaii

Mountain West

52

2

121

Louisiana Tech

Conference USA

52

2

122

Colorado State

Mountain West

50

1.5

123

Northern Illinois

MAC

50

2

124

South Florida

AAC

50

2

125

Western Michigan

MAC

49.5

2

126

Charlotte

Conference USA

48.5

2

127

Akron

MAC

48

1

128

Nevada

Mountain West

48

3

129

New Mexico State

Independent

45.5

2

130

UMass

Independent

39

1.5

131

FIU

Conference USA

35.5

2

Here are my Week 14 power ratings adjustments:

Up: NC State +2, Boise State +1.5, Missouri +3, Colorado State +2, Nebraska +2.5, Florida +1.5, Oregon State +2, Purdue +4, Duke +2, South Carolina +2.5, Kentucky +1.5, Temple +3, Kent State +2.5, Georgia State +1.5, Akron +2, Michigan +2, BYU +2, Nevada +2.5, Notre Dame +2.5, Washington +1.5, Texas A&M +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, UTEP +2.5, Louisiana +1.5, Air Force +2, Arizona State +2

Down: Ohio -6 (Rourke injury), Ole Miss -1.5, North Carolina -2, Arizona -3, Arkansas -2, New Mexico -2, Iowa -2.5, Florida State -2, Cincinnati -5 (Bryant inj; Fickell; motivation), Oregon -3, Kansas -2.5, Indiana -2, Syracuse -1, Georgia -1.5, Wake Forest -1.5, Maryland -2.5, Clemson -2.5, Louisville -2, Liberty -6, UCF -3, East Carolina -3, Buffalo -1.5, Marshall -1, Ohio State -2, Stanford -3, UNLV -2.5, LSU -1.5, Oklahoma State -3, UTSA -1.5, Texas State -1.5, San Diego State -2

Injury: Toledo -6 (if Finn out), Coastal Carolina +8 (if McCall returns), Akron +3 (if Irons returns)

Some notes on the big movers:

Ohio -6: Kurtis Rourke is out for the season. Sure, Ohio beat Bowling Green 38-14, but backup CJ Harris was just 10-of-21 passing for 196 yards and had 12 carries for 65 yards. Bowling Green committed all four of the game’s turnovers. There are QB questions for both teams heading into the MAC Championship Game, but we know that Rourke is out. Dequan Finn may not be.

Liberty -6: The Flames just totally quit on the season with Hugh Freeze halfway out the door. Getting wrecked by New Mexico State is a really, really bad look. Liberty was outgained by 113 yards and gave up 49 points. That’s an unfathomably poor performance.

Cincinnati -5: I didn’t realize just how lackluster the Bearcats were without Ben Bryant. Now they’ll also say goodbye to Luke Fickell, who did an outstanding job recruiting. Expect a fairly big exodus via the transfer portal between now and the bowl game.

Purdue +4: It seems like Purdue has gotten back on track with Aidan O’Connell a bit healthier. My numbers have been low on Purdue for a little while now, so this is a bit of a correction to that, especially last week when I was way off on the Purdue/Indiana line.

Missouri +3: I’m not sure if Eli Drinkwitz’s job was on the line against Arkansas, but that was a nice win and a big offensive showing for a team that had a really strong defense throughout the season.

Oklahoma State -3: The Cowboys have lost four of five, including a loss to a West Virginia team with nothing to play for in the finale. Spencer Sanders didn’t play and he should be back for a bowl game, but I am not impressed with how Oklahoma State has finished up the season. Maybe they rally for a bowl game. We’ll have to see what the matchup is, but for now, I dropped them a bit.

Oregon -3: Can Bo Nix be healthy by the bowl game for the Ducks? My line wound up too high for the Civil War and I think it’s largely because of Nix’s status, but the Ducks also lost outright despite being +3 in turnover margin. Oregon State ran for over six yards per carry. Not a great look for Oregon in the finale.

Here are my Week 14 lines (did add HFA to some neutral-site games):

Date

Away

Home

My Line

12/2

North Texas

UTSA

-10

 

Utah

USC (Las Vegas)

PK

 

Akron

Buffalo

-11.5

       

12/3

Kansas State

TCU (Arlington - 1.5 pt HFA)

-3.5

 

Toledo (w/ Finn)

Ohio (Detroit)

+8 (+2 w/o)

 

Coastal Carolina (w/out McCall)

Troy

-8.5 (-0.5 w/ McCall)

 

UCF

Tulane

-5.5

 

Fresno State

Boise State

-3

 

LSU

Georgia (Atlanta - 1.5 pt HFA)

-17

 

Clemson

North Carolina (Charlotte)

+4

 

Purdue

Michigan (Indianapolis)

-19.5

* unless noted, the game is played at the home team’s venue

Some games to consider:

Utah +3 (PK) vs. USC: I’ll wait and see if I can get a 3.5 here, as the hype train runs wild for USC. The Trojans probably do have a more impressive resume, but Kyle Whittingham as a dog of over a field goal in a big game seems enticing. I’m not rushing to bet on any game this week, but I’m watching this one.

North Carolina +8 (+4) vs. Clemson: Spencer Rattler just threw for 360 yards on Clemson. What’s Drake Maye going to do? I know the Tar Heels don’t have a good defense and really struggled in losses to Georgia Tech and NC State at home, but I see no reason for Clemson to be over a touchdown here.

We’ve still got plenty to talk about on the College Football Podcast and I’ll be on the Tuesday edition with Tim Murray. Rate, review, subscribe and check out the latest edition.

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