Week 13 college football power ratings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 20, 2022 10:46 PM
USATSI_19467939

The final week of the college football regular season has arrived and what a ride it has been. Hopefully my weekly power ratings article and the ratings updates from my colleague Steve Makinen have given you some idea of how to create your own spreads, along with refraining from overreactions about teams on a weekly basis. There are a lot of changes I will be making to my process and what I consider to be important going into next season, but there will be plenty of time to ponder those adjustments.

For now, we’re looking at one last round of games with a lot of different factors in play. Some teams are vying for bowl eligibility. Some are looking for division or conference titles. Some have no stakes, other than personal pride, going out a winner or to send off respected seniors with a victory. Some teams won’t really show up at all. Each game has to be looked at individually for these elements.

The lines are going to be the lines, though. The oddsmakers aren’t interested in how bettors might approach a game. They’re going to trust their numbers, see what influential minds and money have to say and then try to get to the right number as fast as possible, much like they do every week. Just because all of these external handicapping factors are present doesn’t mean any of them are built into the line.

With a lot of intangibles to think about that can’t really be quantified, I use my power ratings less this week than any other week, but they still have a place in my process.

Here are my Week 13 Power Ratings:

Rank

Team

Conference

PR

HFA

1

Georgia

SEC

98.5

3.5

2

Ohio State

Big Ten

93.5

3.5

3

Alabama

SEC

92

3.5

4

Michigan

Big Ten

89.5

3

5

Florida State

ACC

85.5

2

6

Texas

Big 12

85.5

2

7

TCU

Big 12

84.5

2

8

Oregon

Pac-12

84

3

9

USC

Pac-12

84

2

10

Utah

Pac-12

84

3.5

11

LSU

SEC

83

2.5

12

Kansas State

Big 12

82.5

2

13

Tennessee

SEC

82.5

2.5

14

Clemson

ACC

81.5

3.5

15

Ole Miss

SEC

80.5

2

16

Penn State

Big Ten

80.5

2.5

17

UCLA

Pac-12

80

2

18

Washington

Pac-12

79.5

2

19

Arkansas

SEC

79

2

20

Baylor

Big 12

78

2

21

Mississippi State

SEC

78

2.5

22

Notre Dame

Independent

76

3.5

23

Oregon State

Pac-12

76

2

24

Illinois

Big Ten

75.5

1.5

25

Louisville

ACC

75.5

2

26

Washington State

Pac-12

75.5

3

27

Florida

SEC

75

3

28

North Carolina

ACC

75

2

29

Oklahoma

Big 12

75

3.5

30

Texas Tech

Big 12

75

2

31

Kentucky

SEC

74.5

2

32

Wake Forest

ACC

74.5

2.5

33

Minnesota

Big Ten

74

2

34

Auburn

SEC

73.5

3

35

Iowa State

Big 12

73.5

2.5

36

Kansas

Big 12

73.5

1

37

UTSA

Conference USA

73.5

2

38

Maryland

Big Ten

72.5

2

39

Oklahoma State

Big 12

72.5

3

40

UCF

AAC

72.5

3.5

41

Wisconsin

Big Ten

72.5

2

42

Iowa

Big Ten

72

3

43

Tulane

AAC

72

3

44

Cincinnati

AAC

71.5

3.5

45

Pitt

ACC

71.5

2

46

East Carolina

AAC

71

1.5

47

Missouri

SEC

71

2.5

48

Fresno State

Mountain West

70.5

2.5

49

Marshall

Sun Belt

70.5

2

50

NC State

ACC

70

3

51

South Carolina

SEC

70

2

52

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

69.5

3.5

53

Boise State

Mountain West

69.5

2.5

54

James Madison

Sun Belt

69.5

2

55

Houston

AAC

69

2

56

South Alabama

Sun Belt

69

2

57

Arizona

Pac-12

68.5

2

58

West Virginia

Big 12

68.5

2.5

59

Western Kentucky

Conference USA

68.5

2

60

BYU

Independent

68

2

61

California

Pac-12

68

2

62

Duke

ACC

68

2

63

Purdue

Big Ten

68

2

64

SMU

AAC

68

3.5

65

Memphis

AAC

67.5

3.5

66

Syracuse

ACC

67.5

2

67

UAB

Conference USA

67

3.5

68

Toledo

MAC

66.5

2.5

69

Troy

Sun Belt

66.5

2

70

Michigan State

Big Ten

66

2

71

Arizona State

Pac-12

65.5

2.5

72

Texas A&M

SEC

65.5

3.5

73

Air Force

Mountain West

64.5

2.5

74

Georgia State

Sun Belt

64.5

2

75

Ohio

MAC

64.5

2

76

San Diego State

Mountain West

64.5

2

77

Stanford

Pac-12

64.5

2

78

Vanderbilt

SEC

64.5

1

79

Georgia Tech

ACC

64

2

80

North Texas

Conference USA

64

2

81

Navy

AAC

63.5

2

82

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

63

2.5

83

Liberty

Independent

63

3.5

84

Army

Independent

61.5

3

85

Louisiana

Sun Belt

61.5

3

86

San Jose State

Mountain West

61.5

2

87

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

61.5

2

88

UNLV

Mountain West

61.5

1

89

Indiana

Big Ten

61

2

90

Virginia

ACC

61

3

91

Nebraska

Big Ten

60.5

1.5

92

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

60

2

93

Miami (FL)

ACC

60

2.5

94

Utah State

Mountain West

60

2

95

Tulsa

AAC

59

2

96

Virginia Tech

ACC

58.5

2

97

Florida Atlantic

Conference USA

58

3

98

Ball State

MAC

57.5

2

99

Buffalo

MAC

57.5

3.5

100

Northwestern

Big Ten

57

2

101

Old Dominion

Sun Belt

56.5

2

102

Texas State

Sun Belt

56.5

1.5

103

Bowling Green

MAC

56

1

104

Wyoming

Mountain West

56

2.5

105

Kent State

MAC

55

2.5

106

Louisiana-Monroe

Sun Belt

55

2

107

Rutgers

Big Ten

55

1.5

108

Eastern Michigan

MAC

54.5

2

109

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

54.5

2.5

110

Rice

Conference USA

54.5

1

111

Boston College

ACC

54

2

112

Temple

AAC

54

2

113

Miami (OH)

MAC

53.5

3

114

Central Michigan

MAC

53

2.5

115

Colorado

Pac-12

52.5

2

116

UConn

Independent

52.5

1

117

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

52

2

118

Hawaii

Mountain West

52

2

119

Louisiana Tech

Conference USA

52

2

120

UTEP

Conference USA

52

1

121

Northern Illinois

MAC

50

2

122

South Florida

AAC

50

2

123

Western Michigan

MAC

49.5

2

124

Charlotte

Conference USA

48.5

2

125

Colorado State

Mountain West

48

1.5

126

Akron

MAC

46

1

127

Nevada

Mountain West

45.5

3

128

New Mexico State

Independent

45.5

2

129

New Mexico

Mountain West

42

1

130

UMass

Independent

39

1.5

131

FIU

Conference USA

35.5

2

Here are the Week 13 adjustments:

Up: Bowling Green +3, Eastern Michigan +2, Western Michigan +2, Florida State +3, Penn State +1.5, South Carolina +3, Duke +2.5, Indiana +2, Virginia Tech +3.5, Maryland +2, Illinois +2, Kentucky +2, Houston +3, Navy +4, App State +2, Georgia State +2, Auburn +4, Georgia Tech +3, UMass +2, UTSA +2, Washington State +2, Oregon State +3, Cal +1.5, Washington +2.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, Arkansas +2, Southern Miss +2, Charlotte +2, Marshall +2.5, Hawaii +3, San Diego State +2, Notre Dame +2, Clemson +1.5

Down: Toledo -3.5, Kent State -4, Central Michigan -3, Northern Illinois -2, Tulsa -2, New Mexico -2, Louisiana -2, Rutgers -3, Tennessee -9 (Hooker inj, downgrade), Pitt -2, Michigan State -2, Liberty -4, Miami (FL) -4, Ohio State -2, Michigan -1.5, Purdue -2, Georgia -1, East Carolina -2.5,  UCF -3, Old Dominion -2.5, Minnesota -3, North Carolina -2.5, Texas A&M -3, Rice -2.5, Arizona -1.5, Arizona State -2.5, Colorado -2.5, TCU -2.5, Wisconsin -2, UL Monroe -3, Louisiana Tech -2, FIU -4, Arkansas State -2, Boise State -2.5, Nevada -2, South Alabama -3, San Jose State -2, Alabama -1.5, USC -2, Louisville -2

Injury: Toledo -6 (if Finn out), Tulsa -4 (if Brin out), Louisville -6 (if Cunningham out), Akron -6 (if Irons out), Kent State -5 (if Schlee out)

A few notes on the biggest movers:

Tennessee -9: Hendon Hooker didn’t get hurt until the game against South Carolina was basically over, but Tennessee’s College Football Playoff hopes are gone and replacing a Heisman Trophy contender is not easy at all. Based on the line against Vanderbilt, this is a fairly accurate adjustment, but time will tell if it is enough.

Auburn +4: Cadillac Williams isn’t going to get the job, but he sure as hell is making a case to stay on the staff. The Tigers played a rather uninspired first half against Western Kentucky, but dominated the second half en route to a blowout win.

Navy +4: The Middies are really putting together a fine end of the season. It’s too late for them to become bowl eligible, but that was a strong win over UCF on the heels of really good efforts against Notre Dame and Cincinnati. They’re off until Army/Navy on Dec. 10.

FIU -4: I was a little bit too excited about what FIU did in the middle of the season with solid wins over Charlotte and Louisiana Tech. They’ve lost the last three games by a combined score of 144-27 and limp into the season finale against Middle Tennessee with no hopes of bowling.

Liberty -4: I’m not sure if the writing is just on the wall about Hugh Freeze bolting back to a Power Five job or what, but the Flames are more like the Liberty Embers right now after losses to UConn and Virginia Tech. They should roll New Mexico State this week, but they’re going in the wrong direction.

Kent State -4: The Golden Flashes would get downgraded even more if Collin Schlee can’t go this week, but this has been a disappointing end to the season and Kent State won’t be going bowling.

Virginia Tech +3.5: This isn’t a very good team, but Brent Pry has them fighting to the bitter end and I respect that. They’ve had some really close calls late in the season with losses by one to NC State and Georgia Tech, but got one back against Liberty this past week.

Here are my Week 13 game spreads:

Date

Away

Home

My Line

11/22

Bowling Green

Ohio

-10.5

 

Ball State

Miami (OH)

+1

       

11/24

Mississippi State

Ole Miss

-4.5

       

11/25

NC State

North Carolina

-7

 

Baylor

Texas

-9.5

 

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

-3.5

 

Toledo (w/ Finn)

Western Michigan

+15

 

Utah State

Boise State

-12

 

Arizona State

Arizona

-5

 

Arkansas

Missouri

+5.5

 

New Mexico

Colorado State

-7.5

 

Nebraska

Iowa

-14.5

 

UCLA

Cal

+10

 

Florida

Florida State

-12.5

 

Wyoming

Fresno State

-17

 

Tulane

Cincinnati

-3

       

11/26

Oregon

Oregon State

+6

 

Kansas

Kansas State

-11

 

Purdue

Indiana

+5

 

Syracuse

Boston College

+11.5

 

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-38

 

Virginia

Virginia Tech

+0.5

 

Wake Forest

Duke

+4.5

 

Pitt

Miami (FL)

+9

 

Army

UMass

+21

 

Rutgers

Maryland

-19.5

 

South Carolina

Clemson

-15

 

Louisville (w/ Cunningham)

Kentucky

-1

 

Michigan State

Penn State

-17

 

New Mexico State

Liberty

-21

 

UCF

USF

+20.5

 

East Carolina

Temple

+15

 

Kent State

Buffalo

-6

 

App State

Georgia Southern

+4

 

Coastal Carolina

James Madison

-11.5

 

Georgia State

Marshall

-8

 

Western Kentucky

FAU

+7.5

 

Old Dominion

South Alabama

-14.5

 

Akron (w/ Irons)

Northern Illinois

-6

 

Minnesota

Wisconsin

-0.5

 

Michigan

Ohio State

-7.5

 

Illinois

Northwestern

+16.5

 

Utah

Colorado

+29.5

 

Rice

North Texas

-11.5

 

BYU

Stanford

+1.5

 

Nevada

UNLV

-17

 

Notre Dame

USC

-10

 

Washington

Washington State

+1

 

Tulsa

Houston

-12

 

Memphis

SMU

–4

 

Iowa State

TCU

-13

 

UAB

Louisiana Tech

+13

 

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

-2

 

LSU

Texas A&M

+14

 

West Virginia

Oklahoma State

-7

 

Hawaii

San Jose State

-11.5

 

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

+17

 

Auburn

Alabama

-22

 

UTEP

UTSA

-23.5

 

Troy

Arkansas State

+12.5

 

Southern Miss

UL Monroe

+4.5

 

Louisiana

Texas State

+3.5

 

Middle Tennessee

FIU

+17

 

Air Force

San Diego State

-2

A few games to consider:

Indiana +10 (+5) vs. Purdue: The weather hasn’t helped Purdue lately, and the Boilermakers need a win and an Iowa loss to win the Big Ten West Division, but this is not a team I’d want to back laying big numbers. I thought Indiana would get run off the field last week, but the Hoosiers rallied on the road against a team with everything to lose. I’ll take a 10-point head start in a game that probably ends up lower-scoring.

Pitt -6.5 (-9) at Miami (FL): Get this one below a touchdown because it’s probably going to 7 and maybe 7.5. Pitt doesn’t have a ton of market support, but how awful has Miami been this season? They’re getting atrocious QB play and you have to wonder how many guys have already quit on the season. Miami needs a win for a bowl game, but I’m not sure the players even want to be in one and deal with more practices.

Stanford +6.5 (+1.5) vs. BYU: I don’t get the continued love for BYU. The Cougars got rolled by a Liberty team tumbling down my power ratings. They lost to an East Carolina team that just lost 42-3 to Houston. Now they’re going to lay almost a touchdown in Palo Alto? I realize Stanford isn’t very good either, but this is a big ask of BYU.

USC -5.5 (-10) vs. Notre Dame: I fully understand that USC’s defense is bad. Notre Dame also hasn’t faced a prolific offense in a long time. If the Trojans move the ball, which I expect to them to do, is Notre Dame going to be able to keep up with an extremely limited passing attack? Maybe their physicality is enough to hurt USC, but the Irish haven’t faced a good QB since September 24 and he had 301 yards and five touchdowns on just 17 completions. I know I’m high on USC, but I’m also still a little low on Notre Dame.

LSU -9.5 (-14) at Texas A&M: The Aggies are just bad. That performance against UMass was embarrassing and it wasn't their only embarrassing performance in recent weeks. All LSU has to do is beat Georgia to make the College Football Playoff, but a statement against Texas A&M would go a long way from a recruiting standpoint for the Bayou Bengals and you know Brian Kelly knows that, too.

Be sure to keep up on the latest episodes of the VSiN College Football Podcast with host Tim Murray and analysts like myself and Matt Youmans. Rate, review and subscribe!

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