Adam Burke shares his weekly college football power ratings
The college football regular season comes to a close this week. There are 24 teams with a 5-6 record and one team with a 5-5 record. That means 25 teams come into Week 13 looking for that magic sixth win to be eligible for bowl consideration. There are 69 teams that have already gotten to six wins.
Just because a team has five wins doesn’t mean that they are necessarily going to be all fired up seeking a sixth win. Making a bowl game means more practices and another game and some players will just be ready to wrap up the season and move on. We also have some teams that have already fired their coaches or will fire them soon.
This has been the least efficient year for my power ratings that I can remember in quite some time. I think a lot of it has to do with how inconsistent the non-elite and non-awful teams have been. This is a week where I really won’t even look at them, but I’ve been doing the article and I didn’t want to leave any readers hanging. This week, there are way too many external considerations that cannot be quantified, including the fact that it is rivalry week and the records and power ratings sometimes don’t matter in those games.
I will be doing this article for the conference championship games and do one final bowl one prior to the giant list of opt-outs. It would be arduous to adjust every bowl team as guys opt out, so I’ll just do a “here’s my numbers” after we find out who is going where with the obvious caveat that most rosters aren’t going to be at full strength.
Here are my Week 13 College Football Power Ratings:
Here are my Week 13 power ratings adjustments:
Up: Akron +1, Bowling Green +3, Northern Illinois +2.5, Washington State +1.5, App State +2, Army +2, Virginia +2, West Virginia +2, Michigan State +2.5, South Carolina +1.5, Navy +1, Old Dominion +2, Northwestern +2, Arizona +4.5, Oregon State +2.5, LSU +2, Louisiana +3, Temple +1, Iowa State +1, Auburn +2, UNLV +4, Arkansas State +4, Boise State +3, Wisconsin +1.5, Georgia +1
Down: Eastern Michigan -1, Toledo -1, Western Michigan -3, Colorado -3, James Madison -2.5, Coastal Carolina -4, Duke -1, Cincinnati -2, Michigan -2, Kentucky -2, North Carolina -3, East Carolina -3, Georgia Southern -2.5, Iowa -1, Syracuse -3, Utah -1.5, BYU -3, UTEP -2, Louisiana Tech -3, Washington -1, Fresno State -3, USC -5, North Texas -4, UAB -5, Texas -1.5, Baylor -3, Air Force -2.5, Texas State -2.5, Utah State -1, Nebraska -2, Florida State -7 (Travis)
Injury: Colorado -7 (Sanders), Penn State -2 (Allar), Purdue -5 (Card), Kansas -4 (Bean), Utah State -6 (Legas & Hillstrand)
QB Injuries: Lots of ‘em this week, not to mention guys that are already out or injuries that aren’t really public knowledge yet. Buyer beware. Purdue is a great example, as that line ran out early in the week on the Boilermakers and then Hudson Card was a surprise scratch right before kickoff. Coaches aren’t required to disclose anything, so I guess we never really know.
Florida State -7: I don’t know if this is even enough of an adjustment to the loss of Jordan Travis. Tate Rodemaker has been around the program for a long time, but Travis’s loss is enormous.
USC -5: The Trojans are done and will play in some bowl they don’t really care about and they’ll do it without Caleb Williams. When he officially opts out, I’ll definitely change my power rating further, but for now, how uninspired and lifeless was that performance against a UCLA team that was allegedly ready to fire Chip Kelly? Just shameful.
Arizona +4.5: The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country and that’s a good, physical Utah team that they beat up last week. The future looks extremely bright with Noah Fifita at QB.
UNLV +4: One of the best stories in the country. Barry Odom should win Coach of the Year. They continue to impress.
Boise State +3: Utah State had a ton of self-inflicted wounds against Boise, but that was a fired-up bunch without fired head coach Andy Avalos and I have to respect that. They’ve been a better team based on the stats than their record would indicate and now I think they have the mentality to go with it.
Here are my Week 13 lines:
Games to consider based on my Power Ratings (by date/rotation number):
No games this week that would exclusively be power ratings plays for the reasons mentioned above, but I do have big overlays (5+ points) in Liberty/UTEP, Ohio/Akron, Air Force/Boise State, Memphis/Temple (bad spot for Memphis off last week’s loss), Houston/UCF, Navy/SMU, UAB/North Texas.
If you ever have questions about the power ratings process, you can find me on X as @SkatingTripods or email aburke [at] vsin [dot] com.