Week 12 college football power ratings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 14, 2022 12:22 AM
USATSI_19431632

The college football regular season is winding down, which is going to make handicapping even more difficult. There will be some games where both teams will be sufficiently motivated and it will be a pretty straightforward handicap, but there are also going to be some games where effort is going to be in question. Teams that can’t make a bowl game, have a lame-duck head coach or have a newer head coach looking ahead to next season with his own recruits are all hard to gauge at this point.

Not only will the results vary, but how those teams are viewed by the betting market will vary as well. You may be able to find some good line value if you can isolate the teams that are going to keep showing up and putting in the work, but you may also get burned by speculating. I’ll wind up with some of each. Most bettors will. We just hope that we’re on the right side more often than not.

My power ratings don’t necessarily account for the teams I think fall into the “quitting” category. That’s part of the handicapping process and you have to take each team on a case-by-case basis and evaluate the situation at hand. Live betting may be more beneficial at this time of the year so that you can actually see the teams between the lines rather than invest money into your speculations.

Here are my power ratings for Week 12:

Rank

Team

Conference

PR

HFA

1

Georgia

SEC

99.5

3.5

2

Ohio State

Big Ten

95.5

3.5

3

Alabama

SEC

93.5

3.5

4

Tennessee

SEC

91.5

2.5

5

Michigan

Big Ten

91

3

6

TCU

Big 12

87

2

7

USC

Pac-12

86

2

8

Texas

Big 12

85.5

2

9

Oregon

Pac-12

84

3

10

Utah

Pac-12

84

3.5

11

LSU

SEC

83

2.5

12

Florida State

ACC

82.5

2

13

Kansas State

Big 12

82.5

2

14

Ole Miss

SEC

80.5

2

15

Clemson

ACC

80

3.5

16

UCLA

Pac-12

80

2

17

Penn State

Big Ten

79

2.5

18

Baylor

Big 12

78

2

19

Mississippi State

SEC

78

2.5

20

Louisville

ACC

77.5

2

21

North Carolina

ACC

77.5

2

22

Arkansas

SEC

77

2

23

Minnesota

Big Ten

77

2

24

Washington

Pac-12

77

2

25

UCF

AAC

75.5

3.5

26

Florida

SEC

75

3

27

Oklahoma

Big 12

75

3.5

28

Texas Tech

Big 12

75

2

29

Wake Forest

ACC

74.5

2.5

30

Wisconsin

Big Ten

74.5

2

31

Notre Dame

Independent

74

3.5

32

East Carolina

AAC

73.5

1.5

33

Illinois

Big Ten

73.5

1.5

34

Iowa State

Big 12

73.5

2.5

35

Kansas

Big 12

73.5

1

36

Pitt

ACC

73.5

2

37

Washington State

Pac-12

73.5

3

38

Oregon State

Pac-12

73

2

39

Kentucky

SEC

72.5

2

40

Oklahoma State

Big 12

72.5

3

41

Boise State

Mountain West

72

2.5

42

Iowa

Big Ten

72

3

43

South Alabama

Sun Belt

72

2

44

Tulane

AAC

72

3

45

Cincinnati

AAC

71.5

3.5

46

UTSA

Conference USA

71.5

2

47

Missouri

SEC

71

2.5

48

Fresno State

Mountain West

70.5

2.5

49

Maryland

Big Ten

70.5

2

50

Arizona

Pac-12

70

2

51

NC State

ACC

70

3

52

Purdue

Big Ten

70

2

53

Toledo

MAC

70

2.5

54

Auburn

SEC

69.5

3

55

James Madison

Sun Belt

69.5

2

56

Texas A&M

SEC

68.5

3.5

57

West Virginia

Big 12

68.5

2.5

58

Western Kentucky

Conference USA

68.5

2

59

Arizona State

Pac-12

68

2.5

60

BYU

Independent

68

2

61

Marshall

Sun Belt

68

2

62

Michigan State

Big Ten

68

2

63

SMU

AAC

68

3.5

64

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

67.5

3.5

65

Memphis

AAC

67.5

3.5

66

Syracuse

ACC

67.5

2

67

Liberty

Independent

67

3.5

68

South Carolina

SEC

67

2

69

UAB

Conference USA

67

3.5

70

California

Pac-12

66.5

2

71

Troy

Sun Belt

66.5

2

72

Houston

AAC

66

2

73

Duke

ACC

65.5

2

74

Air Force

Mountain West

64.5

2.5

75

Ohio

MAC

64.5

2

76

Stanford

Pac-12

64.5

2

77

Miami (FL)

ACC

64

2.5

78

North Texas

Conference USA

64

2

79

Louisiana

Sun Belt

63.5

3

80

San Jose State

Mountain West

63.5

2

81

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

63

2.5

82

Georgia State

Sun Belt

62.5

2

83

San Diego State

Mountain West

62.5

2

84

Vanderbilt

SEC

62

1

85

Army

Independent

61.5

3

86

UNLV

Mountain West

61.5

1

87

Georgia Tech

ACC

61

2

88

Tulsa

AAC

61

2

89

Virginia

ACC

61

3

90

Nebraska

Big Ten

60.5

1.5

91

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

60

2

92

Utah State

Mountain West

60

2

93

Navy

AAC

59.5

2

94

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

59.5

2

95

Indiana

Big Ten

59

2

96

Kent State

MAC

59

2.5

97

Old Dominion

Sun Belt

59

2

98

Florida Atlantic

Conference USA

58

3

99

Louisiana-Monroe

Sun Belt

58

2

100

Rutgers

Big Ten

58

1.5

101

Ball State

MAC

57.5

2

102

Buffalo

MAC

57.5

3.5

103

Northwestern

Big Ten

57

2

104

Rice

Conference USA

57

1

105

Texas State

Sun Belt

56.5

1.5

106

Central Michigan

MAC

56

2.5

107

Wyoming

Mountain West

56

2.5

108

Colorado

Pac-12

55

2

109

Virginia Tech

ACC

55

2

110

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

54.5

2.5

111

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

54

2

112

Boston College

ACC

54

2

113

Louisiana Tech

Conference USA

54

2

114

Temple

AAC

54

2

115

Miami (OH)

MAC

53.5

3

116

Bowling Green

MAC

53

1

117

Eastern Michigan

MAC

52.5

2

118

UConn

Independent

52.5

1

119

Northern Illinois

MAC

52

2

120

UTEP

Conference USA

52

1

121

South Florida

AAC

50

2

122

Hawaii

Mountain West

49

2

123

Colorado State

Mountain West

48

1.5

124

Nevada

Mountain West

47.5

3

125

Western Michigan

MAC

47.5

2

126

Charlotte

Conference USA

46.5

2

127

Akron

MAC

46

1

128

New Mexico State

Independent

45.5

2

129

New Mexico

Mountain West

44

1

130

FIU

Conference USA

39.5

2

131

UMass

Independent

37

1.5

Here are my Week 12 adjustments:

Up: Akron +1.5, Ohio +3.5, Ball State +1.5, Central Michigan +2, Kent State +2, Memphis +2, Louisiana +2, East Carolina +1.5, USC +2, UNLV +2, Florida State +2, Navy +2.5, Pitt +2, Tennessee +2, Vanderbilt +4, Marshall +2.5, Kansas State +2, Western Kentucky +2.5, Utah +1.5, Washington +2, Arizona +2.5, San Diego State +2, Auburn +2.5, Army +2, Mississippi State +2, UAB +2, UTSA +2.5, FAU +2, TCU +2, North Carolina +2, Hawaii +3, Michigan State +2

Down: Eastern Michigan -3, Miami (OH) -2, Buffalo -3, Tulsa -3, Fresno State -2, Syracuse -4, Virginia Tech -2, Notre Dame -2, Oklahoma -2, Maryland -2, NC State -2, Kentucky -2, Coastal Carolina -7 (McCall injury), App State -2, Illinois -3, Baylor -2.5, Arkansas State -5, Stanford -1.5, Oregon -2.5, UCLA -1.5, San Jose State -2, Texas A&M -3, Troy -3, Air Force -3, Middle Tennessee -2, FIU -4, Cincinnati -2.5, Nebraska -3.5, Texas -2, Wyoming -2, Cal -2, Virginia -3, Indiana -3

Injury: Tulsa -4 (if Brin out), Akron -5 (if Irons out), Louisville -7 (if Cunningham out), Kansas -4 (if Daniels out), Minnesota -3 (if Morgan out)

Some notes on the biggest adjustments:

Coastal Carolina -7: Grayson McCall is one of the most valuable QBs in the country for his team. I’m not sure if this is enough, but he’ll be out until at least the bowl game based on the timeline for his injury.

Arkansas State -5: A correction here after being off on last week’s line, but when you get outgained by 200 yards against UMass, you get a big adjustment.

Vanderbilt +4: What a huge win for the ‘Dores over Kentucky. They’ve been steadily getting better this season and Clark Lea is doing a remarkable job with a very tough gig in Nashville.

Syracuse -4: The Orange have really fallen off and QB Garrett Shrader is not healthy at all. The offense is really pathetic at this point and Shrader is operating well below 100%, so they were one of this week’s biggest drops.

FIU -4: As I’ve said in recent weeks, I wind up with bigger drops than increases at this time of the year. I think FIU’s lack of depth is really starting to show through at this point, as they’ve turned in a few really awful performances after appearing to turn a corner.

Ohio +3.5: The Bobcats look to be the class of the MAC this season. I hope this is the year for them to end that longstanding MAC Championship drought that dates back to 1968.

Nebraska -3.5: Casey Thompson is hurt. The team is falling apart under the interim and sweeping changes are coming. Nebraska is probably a good fade right now.

Here are my Week 12 spreads:

Date

Away

Home

My Line

11/15

Bowling Green

Toledo

-19.5

 

Ohio

Ball State

+5

       

11/16

Eastern Michigan

Kent State

-9

 

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

-11

 

Miami (OH)

Northern Illinois

-0.5

       

11/17

SMU

Tulane

-7

       

11/18

USF

Tulsa

-13

 

San Diego State

New Mexico

+17.5

       

11/19

Texas Tech

Iowa State

-1

 

Kansas State

West Virginia

+11.5

 

Louisiana

Florida State

-21

 

Penn State

Rutgers

+19.5

 

Tennessee

South Carolina

+23.5

 

NC State

Louisville (w/ Cunningham)

-9

 

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-9.5

 

Duke

Pitt

-10

 

Indiana

Michigan State

-11

 

Virginia Tech

Liberty

-15.5

 

Miami (FL)

Clemson

-19.5

 

Ohio State

Maryland

+23

 

Illinois

Michigan

-20.5

 

Northwestern

Purdue

-15

 

Coastal Carolina

Virginia

-4

 

Georgia

Kentucky

+25

 

UConn

Army

-12

 

Houston

East Carolina

-9

 

Cincinnati

Temple

+15.5

 

Navy

UCF

-19.5

 

Old Dominion

App State

-12

 

Georgia State

James Madison

-9

 

Texas

Kansas

+11

 

Western Kentucky

Auburn

-4

 

Iowa

Minnesota (w/ Morgan)

-7

 

Georgia Tech

North Carolina

-18.5

 

UMass

Texas A&M

-35

 

UAB

LSU

-18.5

 

UTSA

Rice

+13.5

 

Washington State

Arizona

+1.5

 

Colorado State

Air Force

-19

 

Oregon State

Arizona State

+2.5

 

San Jose State

Utah State

+1.5

 

Boston College

Notre Dame

-23.5

 

Stanford

Cal

-4

 

Colorado

Washington

-24

 

USC

UCLA

+4

 

Utah

Oregon

-3

 

Florida

Vanderbilt

+12

 

TCU

Baylor

+7

 

Ole Miss

Arkansas

+1.5

 

South Alabama

Southern Miss

+10.5

 

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

-6

 

Wisconsin

Nebraska

+12.5

 

New Mexico State

Missouri

-28

 

UL Monroe

Troy

-10.5

 

Akron (w/ Irons)

Buffalo

-15

 

LA Tech

Charlotte

+5.5

 

FAU

MTSU

+1

 

FIU

UTEP

-14.5

 

Arkansas State

Texas State

-4

 

Marshall

Georgia Southern

+2.5

 

Boise State

Wyoming

+13.5

 

Fresno State

Nevada

+20

 

UNLV

Hawaii

+10.5

A few games to consider:

Tulane -3 (-7) vs. SMU: SMU has a terrific offense, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired. I’ve been thoroughly impressed with Tulane this season. I will say that they do have one of my biggest home-field advantages, which is part of the reason why this line is off, but I still think there’s some line value here.

TCU -2 (-7) vs. Baylor: I know everybody wants to point fingers at TCU for beating backup QBs and nearly covering, but they keep finding ways to win. They’re well-coached, uber-talented and Baylor has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country for me this season. I really liked the Bears, but I’ve sold my stock.

Liberty -9 (-15.5) vs. Virginia Tech: Liberty lost to UConn and the optics of that are never good, but the Flames got Kaidon Salter back and badly outgained the Huskies. Virginia Tech is simply awful. I think this is a good bounce back spot for the Flames.

Minnesota -2.5 (-7) vs. Iowa: Yes, Iowa beat Wisconsin, but the Hawkeyes had 146 yards on 68 offensive plays. Minnesota is just better at everything, even if Tanner Morgan doesn’t go this week.

Subscribe, rate and review the VSiN College Football Podcast, which I’ll be on with host Tim Murray on Tuesday talking about my power ratings and more. 

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