Adam Burke shares his weekly college football power ratings
This year’s college football season has been a frustrating one in a lot of ways. The dispersal of talent is as widespread as it has ever been as a result of the transfer portal and NIL money, so we’ve got a lot of teams that can step up on any given week. I feel like I’ve spent most of the season pinballing the teams in the middle back and forth, while sometimes overreacting and sometimes underreacting.
I still find the creation of power ratings to be a valuable and viable exercise, but I do find myself trusting my numbers a little bit less this year. Maybe it simply has to do with the inconsistency of teams around the country. We already have 60 bowl-eligible programs for 43 bowl games and there are 22 teams with 5-5 records. It could just be the recency bias talking, but it really does feel like there are a lot more 6-4 and 5-5 teams this season than in past seasons.
Parity is good for college football because it makes every week exciting, but it has made a lot of teams a moving target for me. Now that we’re into Week 12, I’m still looking at my numbers, but not really treating them as actionable unless it is a game that I also feel strongly about because of other factors and variables. At this point of the season, some teams will have quit and other teams will keep playing hard for the sake of a coach or some other motivating factor. Obviously there are teams still playing for hardware, bowl eligibility, College Football Playoff aspirations, and the like.
Prior to last week, I had so many games that were close to the market number that I felt like my power ratings were pretty efficient. Last week, however, I had more games that were off-market and nearly all of them went against my number. So, I’ve tried to make some corrections this week, but it feels a little like yelling into the wind at this stage of the game. Some teams are what they are. Some teams aren’t what they aren’t. And some teams are just all over the place week to week.
No matter how long you do something in the betting world, you are always going to learn and find ways to make improvements. That’s my goal coming out of this college football season - to try to better account for what the current landscape of the game is and how I can use it to my favor.
Here are my Week 12 College Football Power Ratings:
Here are my Week 12 power ratings adjustments:
Up: Ohio +2, Ball State +1.5, Western Michigan +2, Toledo +1.5, Southern Miss +1, SMU +3, East Carolina +2.5, Alabama +2.5, Virginia Tech +2, Clemson +2.5, UCF +1.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Charlotte +1.5, Temple +1, Coastal Carolina +2, App State +2, Marshall +2, Texas Tech +2, Northwestern +5, Iowa +3.5, Liberty +3, Boise State +3, Colorado +2.5, Iowa State +1.5, Utah State +2, Utah +1, Oregon State +2, UTSA +4, Indiana +2, Missouri +1.5, Auburn +1.5, TCU +1.5, Cincinnati +2, New Mexico State +4, San Jose State +3, Hawaii +3, LSU +2, Colorado State +1.5, Iowa State +3
Down: Buffalo -3, Northern Illinois -1.5, Central Michigan -2, Kent State -1, Miami (OH) -1, Louisiana -4, Florida Atlantic -2, Kentucky -2, Florida State -1, North Carolina -3.5, Boston College -2, Oklahoma State -1.5, Purdue -4, Memphis -1.5, South Florida -3, Georgia State -2, Kansas -3, Wisconsin -4, Rutgers -1, New Mexico -2, BYU -5, Cal -1.5, Louisiana Tech -3, Rice -3, Tennessee -3.5, Arkansas -3, Texas -3.5, Tulane -2, Western Kentucky -2, UAB -2.5, San Diego State -2, Fresno State -5, Air Force -2, Michigan -1.5, Pitt -3, Nevada -3, Baylor -3
Market corrections: Honestly, this week just features a lot of market corrections to teams I've neglected or haven't adjusted quickly enough. At this point in the season, I'm not really looking to reinvent the wheel with any of these teams. A lot of them are what they are. Most of the big adjustments this week are because I was way off on the line when the market settled in on Sunday evening.
Here are my Week 12 lines:
Games to consider based on my Power Ratings (by date/rotation number):
Georgia Tech (-6 / -9) vs. Syracuse: Skipped ahead to this one because I haven’t lined service academy or MAC teams well this season and this is the first overlay I really like. I think Georgia Tech is really on the rise with Haynes King and they show it here.
UAB (-7 / -14) vs. Temple: I really don’t think either of these teams is very good, but I have a really big overlay on UAB. I’m just not sure how healthy Jacob Zeno is and maybe that’s why there’s such a discrepancy.
New Mexico State (+22 / +14) at Auburn: I think Auburn really stinks. Clearly there’s an enormous mismatch between Conference USA and SEC, which I guess I could account for in a greater way, but the Tigers have been terrible this season.
Marshall (+10 / +6) at South Alabama: Once again, I am really disappointed in South Alabama. I had Arkansas State last week and they covered with relative ease. I think Marshall can do so here as well.
If you ever have questions about the power ratings process, you can find me on X as @SkatingTripods or email aburke [at] vsin [dot] com.