Adam Burke shares his weekly college football power ratings
Only three weeks remain in the college football regular season, as Week 14 is for conference championship games, Week 15 is for Army/Navy, and then it’s bowl season. At this stage of the game, injuries are a major factor in how these teams are rated and it varies by team on how easy it is to get that information. We have a lot of QB injuries this week and we had some very late announcements this past weekend.
It is tough to know exactly what is going on inside these programs as well. Some locker rooms are in better standing than others. Players are frustrated and upset. They’re looking to transfer. They’re looking to make the most of their opportunities. Some guys are playing the final few football games of their careers. Even though we have a lot of data points and that should make these teams a lot more projectable, there are a lot of variables that we don’t really know about.
A lot of my lines are pretty close to market, which must mean that my team evaluations are pretty close. Other lines are still off, especially for some high-variance teams. I’m finding my power ratings to be less trustworthy at this point of the season compared to previous seasons. I couldn’t really pinpoint why, other than to say that maybe the way the season has played out has made it tough for me to properly evaluate certain programs.
We’ve got the great teams, the bad teams, and everything in between feels kind of like a jumbled mess. I feel like I’ve just pinballed a lot of teams back and forth with each passing week. That’s probably just the new normal of college football, so I’ll have to figure out how to adjust.
Here are my Week 11 College Football Power Ratings:
Here are my Week 11 power ratings adjustments:
Up: Ball State +2, Texas Tech +1, Wake Forest +1.5, Troy +2, NC State +1.5, Indiana +1.5, Rutgers +2, App State +1, Michigan State +1, Louisville +2.5, Georgia Tech +2.5, Northwestern +1, James Madison +2.5, Illinois +1, Utah +3, Army +3, Arizona +1.5, Oregon +1, Stanford +2, Utah State +3, Arkansas State +2.5, LSU +2, South Florida +3, Oklahoma State +2.5, Southern Miss +2, Arkansas +1.5, Missouri +2.5, Kansas State +2.5, Hawaii +1.5, New Mexico State +2, Boise State +3, Florida State +1, Cincinnati +1.5, Texas State +2, Liberty +5
Down: Bowling Green -3, Akron -1, TCU -2, Duke -2, South Alabama -2, Wyoming -1, Miami (FL) -1.5, Wisconsin -3, Marshall -2, Nebraska -1.5, Navy -3, Iowa -1, Georgia State -1.5, Minnesota -1.5, Air Force -3, UCLA -1.5, Washington State -2.5, San Diego State -1, Louisiana -2, Memphis -2, Oklahoma -2, Florida -2.5, Georgia -2, Texas A&M -2, Middle Tennessee -2, UTEP -2, Maryland -2, Arizona State -2, BYU -2, UCF -2, Old Dominion -2
Injury (if out): Duke -6 (Leonard), Syracuse -3 (Shrader), Coastal Carolina -5 (McCall), BYU -5 (Slovis), Mississippi State -6 (Rogers), LSU -8 (Daniels), Rice -5 (Daniels), SMU -4 (Stone), Texas -4 (Ewers)
Some notes on the biggest movers:
Liberty +5: I’m probably too high on Old Dominion, but I noticed that my line was off quite a bit against the Monarchs this week. I also saw that Kaidon Salter leads all FBS QBs in EPA/play. Maybe the Flames are even better than I thought.
Boise State +3: A lot +3 upgrades this week. Boise State’s actually been a way better team on a per-play basis than I’ve given them credit for this season.
Utah State +3: Cooper Legas is back as the starting QB and the Aggies have played better with him at the helm.
South Florida +3: Byrum Brown is a name to know. Let’s see if he stays at USF or becomes a hot free agent in the NIL market this season. He accounted for over 450 total yards in USF’s 59-50 loss to Memphis.
Utah +3: I had downgraded Utah with Cam Rising being out for the year and because their offense is generally bad, but they put a beating on Arizona State (who has QB issues again) and deserved a bump.
Army +3: I still don’t know if Army is actually any better, but that was a huge win over Air Force and my line was well off-market last week, even when adjusting for the low total.
Bowling Green -3: Market correction. I really didn’t realize how bad Connor Bazelak has been either.
Wisconsin -3: This team is pretty bad, even with a healthy Braelon Allen. But, Allen is not healthy and Braedyn Locke is really struggling in place of Tanner Mordecai, who was listed as questionable last week.
Air Force -3: Woof. Ugly loss. Ugly line from me. Downgrade.
Injuries: The QB injuries are what we really need to monitor this week and going forward.
Here are my Week 11 lines:
Games to consider based on my Power Ratings (by date/rotation number):
NC State (-2.5 / -6) at Wake Forest: Wake Forest has dropped five of six and hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any of those games. NC State’s defense is legitimately good, even if the offense still leaves something to be desired.
Georgia Tech (+14.5 / +9.5) at Clemson: Clemson only had 285 yards of offense against Notre Dame, so I think they’re getting too much respect for that win. They had a pick-six and only one sustained scoring drive. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is on the rise and Haynes King looks like a real dude.
Georgia (-11 / -17) vs. Ole Miss: Admittedly, I knew my line would be wrong for this game. Georgia finally got tested last week by Missouri and that was not an impressive performance. Ole Miss will test them, too. I’d like to think UGA will be better equipped for a good opponent here, but I don’t know that for sure.
Arizona State (+17 / +10.5) at UCLA: The Sun Devils have QB questions again after Trenton Bourguet left last week and Jacob Conover was horrible. That said, I have not been impressed with UCLA’s last few data points. This seems like too many points.
Fresno State (-1.5 / -6.5) at San Jose State: My lines have been off on Fresno State all season long and I’ve been too high on them according to the market. That was true last week against Boise State and is true again this week. Guess we’ll see which side is right this week.
If you ever have questions about the power ratings process, you can find me on X as @SkatingTripods or email aburke [at] vsin [dot] com.