Tuley's Takes on College Football Week 2

September 7, 2023 07:48 PM

We trust all VSiN’s college football bettors enjoyed the CFB Week 1 over the long Labor Day Weekend.

We know our loyal readers had a lot of fun if they followed our Best Bets with our “dog-or-pass” plays as we went 3-0 ATS last Saturday with outright upsets by Northern Illinois and Colorado (which turned out to be the biggest news of the weekend) while Utah State covered in a SU loss. We did lose on Sunday with San Jose State, but still went 3-1 ATS in Week 2 and stand at 4-2 ATS (66.7%) on the young season.

NIU, my alma mater, was an 8.5-point underdog at Boston College, but it wasn’t a homer pick as the Huskies controlled most of the game. BC rallied to force OT, but we knew we’d still at least cover with more than a TD in our pocket. We ended up not needing them as NIU prevailed 27-24.

We also wish we had bet Colorado on the moneyline as our +20.5 bet was never in doubt as Deion Sanders (and his QB son and several other transfers) led the Buffaloes to a 45-42 upset of No. 17 TCU.

Our play on Utah State +23.5 at Iowa was in a little doubt as the Hawkeyes pulled away to a 24-6 lead with just over 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and were one TD away from covering, but Utah State scored an insurance TD, and we covered in the 24-14 loss. In the end, the game played out as expected as we didn’t expect Iowa’s offense to put up enough points to cover such a big number.

Let’s get to the CFB Week 2 card and start off with the standalone game on Friday night before getting to our top contrarian play on Saturday, though I’m a little concerned as there are plenty of people touting it.

College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds


Friday, September 8

Illinois +3.5 at Kansas

Matchup Analysis

We usually look for motivated home underdogs in these weeknight/primetime national TV games, but we feel we’re getting enough points with this lineup over a field goal at several books. Kansas rolled to a 48-17 victory in its opener, but let’s be real, it was against Missouri State of the FCS (aka Division I-AA as we used to call it). Meanwhile, Illinois opened with a 30-28 win over defending MAC champion Toledo that I feel was much more impressive, so I don’t really feel the Illini are taking much of a step up in class vs. a middle-of-the-road Big 12 team.  


Saturday, September 9

Nebraska +3 at No. 22 Colorado

Matchup Analysis

The whole world seems to be on the bandwagon after the resounding upset of TCU. Colorado buffaloed its way into the rankings at No. 22, and the favorite in this game flipped. Even at Colorado -3, 92% of the bets and 91% of the money at DraftKings was on the Buffaloes as of Thursday morning on the VSiN Betting Splits page. We certainly know all the reasons with Shedeur Sanders (who transferred with his dad from Jackson State) throwing for 510 yards and four TDs with four receivers topping 100 yards.

And then there’s the fact Nebraska lost 13-10 to Minnesota in its opener, so there’s plenty of people looking to bet against the Cornhuskers. But we can’t help but feel this line is an overreaction and looking to back Nebraska with as many points as we can get. Don’t lose sight of the fact that Colorado gave up 42 points. Granted, Nebraska only scored 10 vs. Minnesota, so it will be tough to keep up with the Buffaloes’ offense, but the Cornhuskers did outgain Minnesota 295-291 in total yards and allowed only 13 points.


Arizona +9 at Mississippi State

Matchup Analysis

These two Power 5 schools played very similar openers as they got off to slow starts but then pulled away after halftime for easy victories over lesser opponents. Arizona only led Northern Arizona 14-3 at halftime but went on to win 38-3 as the defense played great the whole game while Mississippi State led Southeastern Louisiana just 20-7 at half and went on to win 48-7. The Bulldogs have the highest-profile stars with QB Will Rogers (227 yards, two TD passes) with RB Jo’quavious Marks (127 yards, two TDs), but Arizona’s defense should level the playing field. My only concern is the Wildcats’ 11 turnovers and two turnovers last week. We’ll say that was first-game jitters and assume they can clean that up. I have this line as closer to a field goal, certainly under a TD, so gimme the inflated points (we feel MSU getting the “SEC bump”).


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