Saturday College Football Sharp Report

December 3, 2022 01:07 AM
georgia1

12 p.m. ET: Kansas State vs TCU (-1.5, 61.5) 

This is the Big 12 Championship game and it will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Kansas State (9-3, ranked 10th) has won three straight games and just beat Kansas 47-27, covering as 12-point home favorites. On the other hand, TCU (12-0, ranked 3rd) is undefeated and just crushed Iowa State 62-14, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with TCU listed as a short 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public can't believe the line is so low and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with undefeated TCU. However, despite receiving 78% of bets we've seen TCU fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This indicates respected money taking the points with Kansas State, who is also the top contrarian play of the day only receiving 22% of bets. 

 

4 p.m. ET: Fresno State at Boise State (-3, 54.5)

This is the Mountain West Championship game. Fresno State (8-4) is riding a seven-game win streak and just shutout Wyoming 30-0, easily covering as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Boise State (9-3) has won three straight games and just brushed aside Utah State 42-23, covering as 16.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Boise State. However, despite receiving 61% of bets we've seen Boise State fall from -4.5 to -3. This signals respected money grabbing the points with Fresno State, triggering sharp line movement toward the road dog. Fresno State is receiving 39% of bets but 55% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Pros have also hit this over, causing the total to rise from 51 to 54.5. 

 

4 p.m. ET: LSU vs Georgia (-17.5, 52) 

This is the SEC Championship game and it will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. LSU (9-3, ranked 14th) just saw their five-game win streak snapped, falling to Texas A&M 38-23 and losing outright as 10-point road favorites. On the flip side, Georgia (12-0, ranked 1st) is undefeated and just crushed Georgia Tech 37-14 but failed to cover as 36.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 15-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too high and they're grabbing the points with LSU. However, despite 65% of bets taking LSU we've seen this line move further to Georgia -15 to -17.5. Why would the oddsmakers hand out additional points to the public when they're already sweating LSU to begin with? Because pros went the other way and laid the points with Georgia, triggering sharp reverse line movement on the Bulldogs. Georgia is only receiving 35% of bets but 51% of money. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 50.5 to 52. 

 

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