Saturday CFB Week 12 Sharp Report

November 18, 2022 11:57 PM

7:30 p.m. ET: Ole Miss (-2, 65.5) at Arkansas

Ole Miss (8-2, ranked 14th) started the season 7-0 but has gone just 1-2 over their last three games, most recently falling to Alabama 30-24 but covering as 11-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Arkansas (5-5) has lost two straight and just fell to LSU 13-10 but covered as 5-point home dogs. This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 85% of bets are laying the points with Ole Miss. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Ole Miss fall from -3 to -2. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Arkansas, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Arkansas is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 15% of bets. Arkansas also has value as a unranked home conference dog against a ranked opponent. The Razorbacks are also searching for their 6th win of the season, which would qualify them for a Bowl Game. 


9:45 p.m. ET: San Jose State at Utah State (-1.5, 50.5)

San Jose State (6-3) is coming off a 43-27 loss to San Diego State, losing outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Utah State (5-5) has won two straight and four of their last five, beating Hawaii 41-34 their last time out but failing to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. We've seen this line hope the fence toward Utah State, steaming the Aggies from a 2.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. This signals smart money backing the home team. Utah State is receiving 57% of bets but 87% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Utah State may have added motivation here as they sit one win away from clinching a Bowl Game bid. We've also seen the total fall from 51 to 50.5. The under is receiving 38% of bets but 66% of money. San Jose State is 6-3 to the under this season and Utah State is 7-3 to the under. 


10:30 p.m. ET: Utah (-2.5, 60) at Oregon

Utah (8-2, ranked 10th) has won four straight games and just crushed Stanford 42-7, easily covering as 24-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (8-2, ranked 12th) just saw their eight-game winning streak snapped with a 37-34 loss to Washington, losing outright as 12-point home favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have hammered Utah, flipping the Utes to a 3-point dog to a 2.5-point favorite. This move was also driven by a key injury for Oregon, with starting QB Bo Nix expected to miss this game due to injury. Utah is only receiving 36% of bets but 64% of money, giving them contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game along with a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in their favor. Utah went 2-0 against Oregon last year, winning 38-10 and 38-7. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. 

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NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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A Numbers Game: We talk about bankroll management being important, but that doesn’t always mean just unit size. Think of your betting like a pie chart. Split up your money correctly for which sports you do best with. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Back teams, players and coaches that the market has trouble gauging. Like Heinicke who is 11-1 ATS. View more tips.

Matt Youmans: North Carolina +8 vs Clemson. View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Purdue +17 vs. Michigan. View more picks.