How to turn a profit by using our Betting Splits feature at VSiN.com

October 23, 2022 03:48 PM
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One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature I personally find to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits section. We built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us. The pages detail the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. 

Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, for starters, it lets us see which sides and totals are the most publicly supported. Let’s face it, we all know the betting public does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DraftKings spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public.” In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors is right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of. 

With more and more states legalizing sports betting, this information is more valuable than ever. In the old days of online sports betting, offshore sportsbooks would share this type of information but bettors had no way of knowing the type of clientele these books were taking on. It’s never in anyone’s best interests to be fading action from professional bettors, and sites such as CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes were known for not only taking these wagers on but also passing them on to other books. Let’s just say it made the data convoluted. With the DraftKings data, we know DK’s customer strength is in numbers, and that is exactly what we are looking for with this type of analysis.

With all of that said, the fact that DraftKings shares this data with VSiN, and we break it all down and display it on our site, is a godsend for bettors. While no betting system is perfect, using this information the right way is about as reliable of a way to make a profit, or at least to stay in the game, as any form of statistical handicapping I’ve come across. 

In this report, I’ll be looking at the overall data for this college football season only. We have others on staff, such as Josh Appelbaum, who have become masters in this domain.

Before digging into some of the data I was able to uncover, I should start with two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places such as DraftKings: 

1. The majority bet favorites on point spreads.

2. The majority bet Overs on totals. 

The numbers are almost staggering. According to the final ticket/handle numbers so far this college football season, favorites have received the majority of wagers in 80% of games, and Overs have received the majority in about 75% of games. Just to be clear, I’m not advising to automatically bet all underdogs and Unders, as that would neither be fun nor profitable, but I’m telling you that in most cases, you would be going against the public, giving yourself at least a reasonable chance to profit long term.

Having received many questions from readers regarding what to look for in the Betting Splits data — questions about all sports, by the way — I thought I’d collect the data for the 2022 college football season up to this point, looking only at the 374 games in which both teams were from the FBS. These are the games that get the most action, and thus more adequately validate the data. 

As I go through the results, I’ll try to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings for sides and totals. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option: Handle and the number of Bets. They can produce varied results but, in general, I would subscribe to the theory that total Handle is a little less “public” than total Bets. 

Here are the overall records of the majority bettors for the 2022 college football season, using the key terms Handle and number of Bets:

— Majority Handle on point spreads: 171-191 ATS (47.3%)

— Majority number of Bets on point spreads: 173-191 ATS (47.5%)

— Majority Handle on totals: 190-173 (52.3%)

— Majority number of Bets on totals: 174-186 (48.3%)

However, as the season wears on, the majority is getting worse at picking winners. Here are some key records from Weeks 4-7:

— Majority Handle on point spreads: 96-122 ATS (44%)

— Majority number of Bets on point spreads: 96-123 ATS (43.8%)

— Majority number of Bets on totals: 99-117 (45.8%)

As you can see, by simply fading the majority figures from our Betting Splits pages for college football, for both Handle and number of Bets on point spreads, you would be slightly profitable (or about even) for the season and highly profitable over the last four weeks. It’s a little more complicated for totals, as the majority Handle actually has a winning record thus far. 

This information gives us a good starting point for developing some systems to take advantage of the DraftKings Betting Splits data at VSiN.com. I’ll start with two systems that focus on a supermajority on one side of an ATS wager:

DK Betting Splits System No. 1: When 80% or more of the Handle is on one side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 18-32 ATS (36%) this season. In other words, if you see the big green lights in the Handle column of the Spread section at 80% or higher, it’s been best to fade it. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where there was 80%+ Handle support for a team, with the majority side in CAPS: 

— HOUSTON-Navy

— BOWLING GREEN-Central Michigan

— West Virginia-TEXAS TECH

— Western Michigan-MIAMI (OHIO)

— Memphis-TULANE

— North Texas-UTSA

— Florida International-CHARLOTTE

— HAWAII-Colorado State

— Arizona State-STANFORD

ARKANSAS STATE-Louisiana

— SOUTHERN MISS-Texas State

— Washington-CALIFORNIA

DK Betting Splits System No. 2: When the number of Bets on one side of an ATS wager is 75%+ , this majority group is just 38-59 ATS (39.2%) this season. Again, if you see the big green lights in the Bets column of the Spread section at 75% or higher, it’s been best to fade it. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where there was 75%+ Bets support for a team, with the majority side in CAPS: 

— HOUSTON-Navy

— CINCINNATI-Southern Methodist

— Eastern Michigan-BALL STATE

— Arizona State-STANFORD

— SOUTHERN MISS-Texas State

— UCF-East Carolina

— Minnesota-PENN STATE

It's obvious you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers. These next two angles focus on the type of team bettors are backing in terms of the line:

DK Betting Splits System No. 3: When the majority of the Handle was on the road favorite for an ATS wager, this majority group is just 42-60 ATS (41.1%) this season. Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of Handle was supporting the road favorite (in CAPS): 

— HOUSTON-Navy

— NORTHERN ILLINOIS-Ohio

— RICE-Louisiana Tech

— TEXAS-Oklahoma State

— SOUTHERN MISS-Texas State

— UCF-East Carolina

DK Betting Splits System No. 4: When the majority of the Handle was on the home underdog for an ATS wager, this majority group is 34-26 ATS (56.7%) this season. While 56.7% is a smaller edge for systems I usually present to readers, this is an advantage of almost 10% against the usual majority win rates. It shows that being on the smart side of majority Handle can pay off. Remember, a higher Handle feels less “public” than a higher number of Bets. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of Handle was supporting the home underdog (in CAPS): 

— Tulsa-TEMPLE

— Cincinnati-SMU

— Toledo-BUFFALO

— Brigham Young-LIBERTY

— Florida Atlantic-UTEP

— San Jose State-NEW MEXICO STATE

— Fresno State-NEW MEXICO

— Texas A&M-SOUTH CAROLINA

— Washington-CALIFORNIA

— San Diego State-NEVADA

The number of Bets data isn’t quite as definitive, but the majority does still struggle when backing road favorites (about 44.5%) and does reasonably well when backing road dogs (about 55.3%). I want to track these numbers this weekend before fully investing in any strategy.

These next two systems focus on teams’ won-lost records and the majority getting behind the so-called better teams:

DK Betting Splits System No. 5: When the majority of the Handle backed the team with more SU wins for an ATS wager, this majority group is just 60-79 ATS (43.2%) this season. More often than not, bettors like to back the better team, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of Handle was supporting the team with more SU wins (in CAPS): 

— Georgia State-APPALACHIAN STATE

— Virginia-GEORGIA TECH

— DUKE-Miami

— Texas A&M-SOUTH CAROLINA

— Iowa-OHIO STATE

— Boston College-WAKE FOREST

— PITTSBURGH-Louisville

— UCF-East Carolina

— Brigham Young-LIBERTY

— HOUSTON-Navy

— BOWLING GREEN-Central Michigan

— Western Michigan-MIAMI (OHIO)

— Marshall-JAMES MADISON

— HAWAII-Colorado State

— UNLV-Notre Dame

— Colorado-OREGON STATE

— RICE-Louisiana Tech

— UCLA-Oregon

— North Texas-UTSA

— Mississippi State-ALABAMA

— OLE MISS-Louisiana State

— KANSAS-Baylor

— Memphis-TULANE

— VANDERBILT-Missouri

— Northwestern-MARYLAND

— PURDUE-Wisconsin

— Minnesota-PENN STATE

DK Betting Splits System No. 6: Similarly, when the majority of the number of Bets backed the team with more SU wins for an ATS wager, this majority group is just 69-90 ATS (43.3%) this season. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of the number of Bets was supporting the team with more wins (in CAPS): 

— Georgia State-APPALACHIAN STATE

— Virginia-GEORGIA TECH

— Kansas State-TCU

— DUKE-Miami

— Iowa-OHIO STATE

— Boston College-WAKE FOREST

— PITTSBURGH-Louisville

— UCF-East Carolina

— HOUSTON-Navy

— Akron-KENT STATE

— Western Michigan-MIAMI (OHIO)

— Marshall-JAMES MADISON

— HAWAII-Colorado State

— UNLV-Notre Dame

— RICE-Louisiana Tech

— WASHINGTON-California

— UCLA-Oregon

— North Texas-UTSA

— Mississippi State-ALABAMA

— OLE MISS-Louisiana State

— KANSAS-Baylor

— CINCINNATI-Southern Methodist

— Memphis-TULANE

— VANDERBILT-Missouri

— Northwestern-MARYLAND

— PURDUE-Wisconsin

— Minnesota-PENN STATE

— SAN DIEGO STATE-Nevada

Those last two systems gave a bunch of potential plays for this weekend. These next four systems involve totals:

DK Betting Splits System No. 7: On games with totals of 60 or higher, majority Handle bettors have been relatively sharp, going 58-44 (56.9%). This majority group has chosen the Over more than two-thirds of the time, but Overs and Unders have won at a similar rate. As of Wednesday afternoon, this is where the majority of Handle is going on totals of 60 or higher in Week 8: 

— OVER 68.5 Akron-Kent State

— OVER 65 NIU-Ohio

— UNDER 65.5 WVU-Texas Tech

— UNDER 68 Ole Miss-LSU

— UNDER 61 Texas-OSU

— OVER 70 UCLA-Oregon

— UNDER 60.5 BC-Wake

— OVER 71.5 North Texas-UTSA

— UNDER 65.5 Ga. Southern-ODU

— OVER 62.5 FIU-Charlotte

— OVER 61 MSU-Alabama

— OVER 65.5 UCF-East Carolina

DK Betting Splits System No. 8: On games with totals of 45 or lower, majority Handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 10-3 (76.9%). This hasn’t produced a lot of plays, but the Handle majority has been sharp. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of Handle was supporting the Under on a total of 45 or lower: 

— UNDER 44.5 WMU-Miami Ohio

— UNDER 43.5 Southern Miss-Texas State

— UNDER 43 San Jose State-New Mexico State

— UNDER 41 Fresno State-New Mexico

— UNDER 44.5 Texas A&M-South Carolina

— UNDER 42.5 Utah State-Wyoming.

DK Betting Splits System No. 9: On games with totals of 45 or lower, majority number of Bets bettors siding with the Over have gone 10-18 (35.7%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of number of Bets has been wrong most often. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority of Bets was supporting the Over on a total of 45 or lower: 

— OVER 44.5 WMU-Miami (Ohio)

— OVER 43.5 Southern Miss-Texas State

— OVER 43 San Jose State-New Mexico State

— OVER 41 Fresno State-New Mexico

— OVER 45 Minnesota-Penn State

— OVER 44.5 Texas A&M-South Carolina

— OVER 42.5 Utah State-Wyoming

— OVER 36 San Diego State-Nevada

DK Betting Splits System No. 10: On totals where the majority of the Handle and the majority of the number of Bets are on opposite ends, the Handle plays have gone 57-41 (58.2%) this season. This shows that more sharp action is being displayed by the Handle majority. As of Wednesday afternoon, these are the Week 8 games where the majority Handle was in conflict with the majority number of Bets, with the majority Handle shown in CAPS: 

— UNDER 52.5 Tulsa-Temple

— OVER 55.5 ULM-Army

— OVER 68.5 Akron-Kent State

— UNDER 58 Toledo-Buffalo

— UNDER 47.5 UNLV-Notre Dame

— UNDER 56.5 Rice-Louisiana Tech

— UNDER 65.5 West Virginia-Texas Tech

— UNDER 68 Ole Miss-LSU

— UNDER 44.5 WMU-Miami (Ohio)

— UNDER 61 Texas-Oklahoma State

— UNDER 56.5 Memphis-Tulane

— UNDER 60.5 Boston College-Wake Forest

— UNDER 51.5 Purdue-Wisconsin

— UNDER 50 Marshall-James Madison

— OVER 46.5 Hawaii-Colorado State

— UNDER 50.5 FAU-UTEP

— UNDER 43.5 Southern Miss-Texas State

— UNDER 43 San Jose State-New Mexico State

— UNDER 41 Fresno State-New Mexico

— UNDER 47.5 Boise State-Air Force

— UNDER 44.5 Texas A&M-South Carolina

— UNDER 55 Pittsburgh-Louisville

— UNDER 50 Colorado-Oregon State

— UNDER 54.5 Kansas State-TCU

— UNDER 42.5 Utah State-Wyoming

— UNDER 56 Washington-California

These last few systems take into account how lines have moved throughout the week as a result of the betting action:

DK Betting Splits System No. 11: When the majority of Handle has been on a home team but the opening line moved toward the road team, the majority side is 51-18 SU and 39-29-1 ATS (57.3%). Presumably this is a bit of a trap set by DK to entice more action on the road team.

DK Betting Splits System No. 12: When the majority of Handle has been on a road team but the opening line moved toward the home team, the majority side is just 20-28 ATS (41.7%), the opposite success level of System No. 11. Naturally, this seems random at this point, so tread lightly.

DK Betting Splits System No. 13: When the majority number of Bets has been on a total going Over but the opening total moved down, this has shown to be another trap, with the majority going just 74-95 (44%). 

A key reminder before I wrap up, these Betting Splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before kickoff. If you adopt any of these strategies this week or going forward, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. The potential games I have listed for each system this week were as of Wednesday afternoon.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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A Numbers Game: An easy place to get a leg up for new bettors is just shopping futures prices. It is easy to find major differences often. i.e. Virginia 30-1 vs 16-1. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Bet as early as possible when bowl lines come out. Lines can move more than a TD in 2-3 weeks before a game. View more tips.
 
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Gill Alexander: Seahawks -7 vs Browns.  View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Jets +3 at Vikings.  View more picks.

 

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