Friday College Football Sharp Report

December 2, 2022 01:11 AM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's College Football slate...

 

1 p.m. ET: Akron at Buffalo (-11.5, 55.5) 

This is the final regular season matchup for both MACtion foes. Akron (2-9) is coming off a 44-12 win over Northern Illinois, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Buffalo (5-6) has lost three straight games and just fell to Kent State 30-27 in overtime, losing outright as a 4.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 13-point home favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big number and 62% of bets are laying the points with Buffalo. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Buffalo fall from -13 to -11.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros grabbing the points with Akron. MACtion dogs are 33-14 ATS (70%) this season. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 57 to 55.5. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 65% of money, a wiseguy under bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 50s with 10-15 MPH winds. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: North Texas at UTSA (-8.5, 69.5) 

This is the Conference USA Championship Game and it will be played at the Alamodome, the true home site of UTSA. North Texas (7-5) just beat Rice 21-17 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. On the other hand, UTSA (10-2) has won nine straight games and just edged UTEP 34-31 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. This line opened with UTSA listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen UTSA creep up from -7.5 to -8.5. This signals some sharp money laying the points with UTSA. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 65.5 to 69.5. The over is receiving 52% of bets but 84% of money, a massive sharp over bet discrepancy. Both teams are 7-5 to the over this season. 

 

8 p.m. ET: Utah vs USC (-2.5, 67)

This is Pac 12 Championship game and will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Utah (9-3, ranked 11th) just crushed Colorado 63-21, covering as 30-point road favorites. On the flip side, USC (11-1, ranked 4th) just brushed aside Notre Dame 38-27, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Currently 79% of bets and 77% of money are laying the wood with USC, driving the Trojans from -1.5 to -2.5. This signals a combination of both Pro and Joe support backing USC. The Trojans hold the edge offensively, averaging 43 PPG compared to 40 PPG for Utah. The total hasn't budged off the opened of 67. Currently 69% of bets and 82% of money are taking the over. USC is 9-3 to the over this season. Utah is 6-6 to the over/under. 

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Lou Finocchiaro: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD +380. View more picks.

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PRO TIPS

Live Bet Sunday: The majority of the handle for the Super Bowl will come relatively late, ramping up a few days before the game. Expect this action to alter the money line prices if not the spread. View more tips.

The Lombardi Line: The Chiefs have FOUR rookie DBs with Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. If the Chiefs D focuses on pass rush and leaves the DBs to play man-to-man, the Eagles' pass catchers have the advantage. View more tips.

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