Friday CFB Sharp Report: USF-Tulsa and SDSU-New Mexico

November 17, 2022 11:17 PM
tulsa1

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown for Friday's action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast, which is posted by 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's College Football doubleheader...

 

9 p.m. ET: South Florida at Tulsa (-14, 58)

South Florida (1-9) has lost eight straight games and just fell to SMU 41-23, failing to cover as 17.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Tulsa (3-7) has lost six of their last seven and just lost to Memphis 26-10, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tulsa listed as a 12-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen Tulsa get steamed up from -12 to -14, signaling pro money laying the points with the home favorite. Tulsa is only receiving 50% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Tulsa has the edge on offense (28 PPG vs 26 PPG) and on defense (allowing 33 PPG vs 40 PPG). Tulsa also enjoys a two-day rest advantage, having last played on November 10th compared to USF last playing on the 12th. We've also seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 60 to 58. 

 

9:45 p.m. ET: San Diego State (-14.5, 36) at New Mexico

San Diego State (6-4) has won four of their last five games and just upset San Jose State 43-27, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, New Mexico (2-8) has lost seven straight and just got rolled by Air Force 35-3, failing to cover as 21-point road dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win with San Diego State and 70% of bets are laying the double-digit points. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged, signaling some line freeze liability on home dog New Mexico plus the points. Sharps also expect a very low scoring game in this one. This total opened at 39 and has been steamed down to 36. The under is only receiving 18% of bets but 68% of money, a massive +50% smart money discrepancy to the under. 

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