Florida vs. Miami Odds and Picks
It’s always exciting when the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes meet, so there will be some energy in Hard Rock Stadium when these two clash on Saturday, September 20th. Of course, this game would have a little more juice if Florida didn’t lose to the South Florida Bulls a few weeks ago, but a rivalry game is a rivalry game. And the Gators will feel they have the talent to deal the Hurricanes their first loss. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Florida vs. Miami
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
When: Saturday, September 20th at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Florida vs. Miami Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Miami -325, Florida +260
Spread: Miami -7.5 (-110), Florida +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 50.5 (-118), Under 50.5 (-102)
Florida vs. Miami Analysis
On Monday, Billy Napier said his Florida team is “close to being pretty dangerous.” That comment was met exactly how you’d expect on social media, with everybody ripping the struggling coach to shreds. But honestly, he wasn’t wrong. Of course, Florida’s loss to South Florida was extremely disappointing, as the Gators were expected to win that game by almost three touchdowns. However, anybody that watched it knows that Florida should have gotten across the finish line, despite the fact that the team played awful offensively. The meeting with the LSU Tigers the following week was similar, with the Gators losing by only 10 in a game in which DJ Lagway tossed five interceptions.
The reality is that this Florida team is better than its record, and it shouldn’t surprise anybody if the team snaps out of its coma and shows up against Miami. At the very least, a strong defensive effort can be expected. The Gators are allowing only 12.7 points per game this year, and they just did a good job of keeping Garrett Nussmeier and a loaded Tigers offense down. It helped having Caleb Banks, one of the country’s best defensive tackles, who is now out for the year after having undergone surgery. But Florida still has high-level players at all three levels of the defense, and the team has what it needs against a Miami offense that is humming with Carson Beck pushing the buttons.
We haven’t seen the same coverage busts from the Gators that plagued them last season, and keeping that from happening would go a long way against the Hurricanes. Miami has a lot of success with short crossers over the middle of the field, but the team does want Beck to hit some shots over the top.
However, this game will come down to the play of Lagway. The sophomore is coming off the worst game of his career, and this season is off to a brutal start. But he’s a former top-ranked recruit that has a big arm, a sharp mind and the ability to make plays with his legs. He’s not a lost cause, and we saw him play some good football down the stretch last season. Can he find that again?
Miami’s defense has looked good with Corey Hetherman as defensive coordinator, which shouldn’t be shocking considering the work he did with Minnesota up until last season. However, this team is somewhat exploitable on the ground, so that could be Florida’s way of softening up the entire unit. And creating manageable situations for Lagway could be exactly what he needs to find his confidence again.
It’s also worth noting that Napier has been kind to bettors when people have left Florida for dead. With Napier at the helm, the Gators are 4-0 against the spread as road underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points. He has also been good about getting his team to clean things up, as Florida is 2-1 both straight-up and ATS after games with turnover margins of -2 or worse under him. Meanwhile, under Mario Cristobal, Miami is just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Hurricanes are also 7-10 ATS as home favorites under him.
You’ll also have to search far and wide to find bettors that are willing to take Florida. Pretty much everyone wants to grab Miami given the opposite directions these programs are going, according to our VSiN betting splits. Well, be careful backing an “obvious” favorite — especially in a rivalry game. The Gators might not have high hopes the rest of this season, but beating the Hurricanes would be a good way to wash away some of the pain of the last few weeks.
Florida vs. Miami Prediction
I didn’t quite have the courage to take Florida in this game, as I’m a little nervous about Lagway’s shaken confidence leading to a costly mistake late in a close game. However, I did take an alternate line of +15.5 in a parlay with Wisconsin moneyline, so I have a small piece of this game. And I do think there’s some value in backing the Gators to keep this to a touchdown or less — and wouldn’t be stunned if they win outright.
Lean: Florida +7.5 (-110)
UPDATE (Saturday, September 20th at 5:00 pm ET): I ended up playing Florida +8.5 (-115) as one of my best bets for the week.
