Week 4 college football best bets
Week 3 of college football was a slate that many grumbled about due to the lack of marquee matchups. Enter Week 4. This weekend’s slate is absolutely loaded, which makes it fun from a betting perspective, but challenging to stay disciplined and not succumb to the urge to bet every single high-profile game. I’ve isolated a few opportunities for this week that present value, based on my T Shoe Index projections.
College Football Betting Splits | CFB Odds | CFB Matchups | Week 4 Hub
This is a rare opportunity for me to give out a best bet at a better number than I personally bet it early in the week. After seeing the total get bet up to 44 from the opening number of 41.5 at Circa, we saw some buy-back down to 42 and the line currently sits at 43, as of 9:00 am ET Wednesday morning.
TSI projects these teams to combine for 56.5 points in this game, so outside of some wind theoretically impacting the game, I don’t quite understand the total being set so low. The average total points in these teams’ games this season is around 59 points; resulting in Appalachian State being the top Group of Five offense in my ratings. While Wyoming’s offense isn’t necessarily anything to write home about, neither of these teams are in the top 20 in the G5 on the defensive side, so stops will likely be few and far between.
Pick: Over 43 points (Play to 45)
Another Group of Five total has piqued my interest, this time featuring two offenses that each rank in the bottom 17 of the G5, and outside the top 100 in FBS. Defensively, these teams are not much better, as each team is outside the top 25 in the G5 and outside the top 85 in FBS. Points should be extremely hard to come by for two teams whose games have averaged just 42 total points so far this season. TSI projects a generous 49.5 points here, and honestly, that might be too high.
Pick: Under 52.5 Points (play to 51)
I had to save the best for last here, as we have an opportunity to make a high-value bet on a marquee game that everyone will be watching. While this matchup lost a little luster after Clemson’s season-opening debacle at Duke, this is still a matchup of two TSI top-25 teams – Florida State No. 8 and Clemson No. 25. So, how do these CFB heavyweights stack on offensively and defensively?
Offensively, Florida State has the No. 5 offense and the No. 33 defense, while the Tigers have the No. 17 offense and the No. 46 defense. Despite all the talk about the offensive shortcomings for Dabo Swinney’s team, the defense has actually been the more disappointing unit. So what do these ratings mean for a projected outcome? TSI projects a 7-point Seminoles win on the road in Death Valley, so the fact we’re getting a line below the two key numbers of 3 and 7 has me backing Mike Norvell’s team in another “prove it” opportunity.
Pick: Florida State -2.5 (play to -2.5, -125)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
Lastly, here's a look at my current CFP projections and top-25 ratings: