College football Week 3 best bets from the T Shoe Index

September 13, 2023 09:13 AM

Week 3 college football best bets

Week 2 best bets were a profitable 2-1 in what easily could’ve been a 3-0 week had UAB sneaked in the back door against Georgia Southern; but, in this business you’ve got to take the bad with the good, and profit is always good so no complaints here. While this week doesn’t have a ton of glamorous matchups, the beautiful thing about betting is there’s always something to like, regardless, so let’s get to what my T Shoe Index has for us this week.

College Football Betting Splits | CFB Odds | CFB Matchups

Tulane (-12) at Southern Mississippi, O/U 49.5

My condolences for anyone who bet Tulane +7.5 last week; star QB Michael Pratt ended up sitting out with an injury, but backup QB Kai Horton stepped in and did an admirable job, giving the Green Wave a lead throughout most of the game before some late-game shenanigans led to an Ole Miss cover. 

The bright side is that I think the somewhat lopsided final score has created another betting opportunity to back the Wave here at Southern Miss. TSI is still projecting a nearly 23-point win on the road, and even if you wanted to subtract a touchdown in the anticipated absence of Pratt, that still gives us plenty of value on the number to lay the points. Tulane still boasts the No. 3 offense and the No. 5 defense in the Group of Five, per TSI, while Southern Miss is No. 50 and No. 55, respectively. This is a total mismatch on both sides of the ball, so I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with the underrated Green Wave.

Pick: Tulane -12 (Play to -13.5)

Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo, O/U 55

I was on alert coming into the season that my numbers might’ve been high on Liberty; however, their 2-0 ATS record has somewhat vindicated me thus far and the numbers are pointing back to old faithful again this week. To me, this is absolutely a case where 1. Oddsmakers did not account for Buffalo’s performance in a loss to FCS Fordham last week and 2. Premature backing of the underdog with anticipation of weather impacts from the hurricane in the northeast; however, I’ve checked the updated forecast and weather should not be a factor in this game. 

Luckily for us, the T Shoe Index does account for FCS performances (every data point is important!) and Buffalo had a game grade of -19 last week – meaning, their performance was 19 points worse than what the average FBS team would be expected to do against the opponent; meanwhile, Liberty was en route to a 10.5 game grade (10.5 points better than FBS average). TSI projects Liberty -9.5 in this game, so I’m going to lay the points with yet another road favorite this week.

Pick: Liberty -3.5 (play to -5.5)

West Virginia (pk) vs Pittsburgh, O/U 50

I haven’t played many totals so far this year while I’ve allowed TSI to get acclimated to the potential impacts of the new clock rules, but I feel confident now heading into week 3 and have identified a total I can’t pass on as Pitt heads to Morgantown in the Backyard Brawl. While admittedly, neither offense is other-worldly by any stretch, these defenses are bad enough that there should be plenty of points in a game that TSI projects to be in the high 50s (58). WVU is No. 67 and Pittsburgh is No. 49 out of 69 power five teams on defense. That’s brutally bad. An important factor here is we’re getting this total under a key number of 51, which makes this an even more enticing bet. 

Pick: Over 50 points (Play to 51)

You can always find my ratings and projections on every college football game to use as a betting resource every week, while getting my best bets right here at Be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex to get my real-time tips on when lines are moving and any other relevant betting nuggets I find.

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