College football Week 2 best bets from the T Shoe Index

September 6, 2023 10:30 AM

Week 2 college football best bets

After a long Labor Day weekend of nonstop college football, we’re only a day away from the start of Week 2 of the college football season; therefore, it’s time for best bets for the upcoming weekend. While Texas A&M finding its offensive identity and Old Dominion handing Virginia Tech three costly second half turnovers last week were not ideal for our Week 1 best bets, I’m ready to get back on the horse and find some winners this week.

College Football Betting Splits | CFB Odds | CFB Matchups

UAB @ Georgia Southern (-7), O/U 60

This game is one of the few instances in Week 2 where my T Shoe Index has the underdog projected as a favorite. In these teams’ first action of the season, UAB took down FCS NC A&T 35-6, while Georgia Southern beat The Citadel 34-0. UAB is the No. 77 team in TSI, whereas Georgia Southern is No. 94. The Blazers rank 88th on the offensive side of the ball, going up against the 120th-ranked Eagles defense. On the other side of the ball, Georgia Southern is a respectable 68th on offense, taking on a UAB defense ranked 56th. All in all, TSI projects the game as a three-point UAB win on the road.

Pick: UAB +7 (Play to +6)

Purdue @ Virginia Tech (-3), O/U 49

In another instance of the market favoring the opposite team as TSI, we head back to Blacksburg for a clash of the Boilermakers, who lost a tough game to Fresno State (as TSI predicted) last week, and the Hokies, who covered against ODU thanks to some fortunate turnover luck in the second half of that game. Purdue ranks No. 53 overall, with the No. 38 offense and No. 69 defense, according to TSI; while the Hokies are 85th overall, possessing the 98th-ranked offense and 62nd-ranked defense. Bottom line, the T Shoe Index favors Purdue by a touchdown in Blacksburg. I promise I don’t have a personal vendetta against the Hokies, but the market continues to be much higher on them than my numbers indicate it should be, so I’ll continue to fade them in the meantime. 

Pick: Purdue +3, (play to pick ‘em)

Kansas State (-16.5) vs Troy, O/U 50

Kansas State opened the season with a dominant 45-0 win over FCS Southeast Missouri, but don’t let the name on the jersey fool you into discrediting that win. My numbers indicate that performance was 14 points better than what the average FBS team would’ve been expected to do. Troy, on the other hand, had a less-than-stellar showing against its FCS foe, beating Stephen F. Austin 48-30. Kansas State enters this matchup as the No. 19 team in TSI, as they are a balanced 27th-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense. The Trojans rank just 93rd overall, 114th on offense and 68th on defense. TSI calls for a 26-point Wildcats win in Manhattan, so I’m rolling with K State.

Pick: Kansas State -16.5 (Play to 17)

Follow along this college football season where I’ll have the weekend’s best bets right here every Wednesday and be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex. If you want to check out the full T Shoe Index ratings and projections, that is available here. Until next time, let’s cash some bets!

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