College football line moves and best bets for Week 10
College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits
*Lines are opening numbers
Top Games
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-4, 57.5)
Alabama will host LSU in a massive revenge spot that will likely decide the representative of the SEC West in the SEC Championship this season. Saturday will be nearly a year to the day that the Crimson Tide went to Baton Rouge and fell to the Tigers in overtime. Alabama revenge against Tennessee two weeks ago for one of its two losses last season, but this will be a different animal.
Jayden Daniels will stroll into Bryant-Denny Stadium as a Heisman contender and one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country. He is the SEC leader in touchdown passes (25), passing yards (2,572) and yards per attempt (11.3), and he is 42nd in the country in turnover worthy play rate (2.8%). As a result, the Tigers lead the country in both EPA per play (0.450) and EPA on early downs. This will clearly be the stiffest test that Alabama’s defense has faced this season, but it has had success against great offenses. Look no further than the win over Ole Miss – the 14th-ranked offense by EPA standards – when the Tide limited the Rebels to 10 points on 301 total yards while limiting them to 3-of-14 on third downs.
Alabama also gets the benefit of facing a porous LSU defense which is 119th in opponent EPA per play (0.190). The Tigers have allowed 6.0 yards per play and 405.7 yards per game this season. The Tide have not been an efficient offense by any stretch, but their opponent tends to make bad teams look good. Arkansas – which just fired it’s offensive coordinator during the bye week – scored 31 points and had 426 total yards against this unit, for crying out loud.
The respect for Daniels and this offense – as well as the porous defense the Tigers put on the field weekly – is likely why the initial move on the total went to the Over. Circa Sports opened the number at 57.5 but that was up to 60 within 30 minutes of opening. DraftKings opened the side at Alabama – 4 which is a number I believed to be somewhat short. My thoughts were briefly confirmed when Circa opened Alabama at -6 but that was bet down to -4 within one minute.
Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 62.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
It would seem that Oklahoma used all of its bullets to grab a win over Texas in the Red River Shootout three weeks ago. In the two games out of the bye the Sooners are 0-2 ATS and they lost outright in Lawrence yesterday as 7.5-point favorites. A defense that was operating at a very high level has allowed 840 yards and 67 points over the last two games. That unit now has to go on the road for a second consecutive week and contain one of the hottest teams – and running games – in the country.
Oklahoma State is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games, and the play of Ollie Gordon II is the driving force behind the Cowboys’ success. Gordon has run for 553 yards over the last two games, and Oklahoma State is now 18th in the country in EPA rushing as a result. This will be a stiff test for Gordon and the Cowboys though, as the Sooners have the fifth-best rush defense in the country by EPA standards. If Gordon cannot run with the same efficiency as he has the last few weeks then the onus will be on Alan Bowman, the 15th-ranked passer in the Big 12 by PFF standards.
DraftKings opened this game at -7 which is a strong number for a team that has failed to cover its last two games and is playing on the road for a second straight week. The betting market agreed with that sentiment. Circa Sports opened Oklahoma -4 and was bet up to -6 but that is currently where the market stands. The Cowboys will likely garner support at the window if a full touchdown appears again, so expect that number to be fleeting if it returns.
Honorable Mentions
UCLA Bruins (-1.5, 59) at Arizona Wildcats
Last weekend I took my shot against Arizona, but the Wildcats proved to be the real deal with a very strong victory over Oregon State. Arizona finds itself in a similar situation this weekend against a similar opponent in UCLA. DraftKings opened UCLA as 1.5-point favorites, but Circa Sports opened this game PK on Sunday. The market took the side of UCLA, driving the number up to -2 at Circa and other shops. Arizona is now 7-1 ATS on the season and 23rd in opponent EPA. Jedd Fisch is doing a brilliant job in Tucson, but the market is taking its shot this weekend.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-19, 44.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers is another plucky home underdog this weekend. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS on the season and 40th in opponent EPA (-0.031), but they are massive underdogs to the Buckeyes this weekend. Ohio State took care of business in Madison over the weekend but failed to cover which snapped a 4-0-1 ATS run for the Buckeyes. The perception of Ohio State is that the team is unimpressive and struggling, and yet they are one of the hottest teams at the window over the last month. DraftKings opened this line at -19 and Circa Sports hung up -20 on Sunday. The market took the points with Rutgers and knocked this down to -18 which is the consensus number.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators (-6, 52.5)
This game is worth mentioning – and it will be a brief mention – because of the situation Arkansas finds itself in. Sam Pittman fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos during the Razorbacks’ bye week, and wide receivers coach Kenny Guiton will now coordinate Arkansas’ offense. The Razorbacks are 2-6 SU/4-4 ATS on the season and sliding, but this situation against Florida is one it has thrived in this season. As an underdog Arkansas is 3-1 ATS and on the road it is 3-0 ATS. Can they pull off another cover in this scenario against Florida which is coming off a beat down in Jacksonville?
Best Bets
Washington Huskies (-3, 76.5) at USC Trojans
Neither Washington or USC is in incredible form heading into this game, so it’s hard to feel confident in one side or another. Having said that, it is hard to turn down a buy-low opportunity on the Trojans. Washington has been overvalued by the betting market for some time now, and it enters this contest 3-4-1 ATS on the season. The Huskies are only 1-2 ATS on the road as well, but here they are laying a full field goal to the Trojans. USC has its own issues – it is 2-7 ATS on the season – but this is a completely different role. The Trojans have closed as a favorite in every game but one: the loss at Notre Dame. Two weeks ago USC is likely favored in this game, and Washington has not done much to make me believe they deserve to lay a key number away from home.
Play: USC (+3)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5, 40.5) at Clemson Tigers
The vibes for Clemson are absolutely atrocious. The Tigers are fighting for bowl eligibility and 2-6 ATS on the season. Their offense is now 67th in the country in EPA (0.080) and 99th in EPA rushing. Despite all of that, there are some positives to point to. Clemson did outgain N.C. State 364-202 in the loss on Saturday, but two turnovers – one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown – and a missed field goal brought them down. The Tigers also held the Wolfpack to 3-of-13 on third downs and 2.5 yards per carry. Their defense has been consistent, and ranks 16th in opponent EPA (-0.104). If there was a buy-low spot, it would be this one. Clemson played Florida State in September as 1.5-point underdogs at home and was in position to win the game. Now, against a worse team in Notre Dame, they are catching 3.5 points. I’m willing to bite the bullet and take one more shot with Dabo here.
Play: Clemson (+3.5)
