College football Week 0 best bets from the T Shoe Index

August 23, 2023 07:34 PM

Week 0 college football best bets

It’s finally here. Week 0 of the 2023 college football season kicks off this weekend, which means the hay is in the barn for my preseason work on the T Shoe Index and it’s time to cash some tickets. With Week 0 being a much smaller slate than traditional weeks, betting volume will be lower this week, but rest assured we will have a full card starting next week. If you’re new here and wondering why you should care what I think or what the heck the T Shoe Index is, you can get those questions answered here. Now that we’re acquainted, let’s get to the winners:

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5, 49.5)

Best bet #1 of the CFB season will take us to Dublin, Ireland, where the Navy Midshipmen will square off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This game is about as talent-discrepant as they come, with Notre Dame boasting the 10th-most talented team, per my weighted four-year recruiting averages, while Navy is an abysmal 130th out of 133 FBS teams. Talent discrepancies are one thing, but how does that translate to covering a 20.5-point line? That’s where the T Shoe Index (TSI) comes in; TSI projects this game as a 26 point win for the Irish, with a score in the neighborhood of 39-13. Notre Dame projects as the No. 26 offense in the country going against the 75th-ranked defense of Navy; on the other side of the ball, this matchup pits the 106th TSI-ranked offense against the 17th-ranked defense of the Fighting Irish. Translation: this game should be a blowout.

Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 (Play to -21)

UMass Minutemen at New Mexico State Aggies (-6.5, 48)

Let’s head to Las Cruces, New Mexico, where the New Mexico State Aggies will host the Minutemen of UMass. Current odds on the game are New Mexico State -6.5, with an Over/Under set at 45, and TSI sees some major value here on the home team, projecting the Aggies to defeat the Minutemen by 13 with a final score around 30-17. Admittedly, this is a bit of a sicko game to bet, as NMSU is 120th in offensive rating and UMass is an even worse 123rd in the TSI defensive ratings. It doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball. UMass projects as the worst offense in FBS this year, while New Mexico State is the 108th-best (25th worst?) defense in the country, according to TSI. Let’s hold our noses and dive full force into CFB degeneracy and cash a winner here.

Pick: New Mexico State -6.5 (play to -7)

Follow along this college football season where I’ll have the weekend’s best bets right here every Wednesday and be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex. If you want to check out the full T Shoe Index ratings and projections, that is available here. Until next time, let’s cash some bets!

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