Five college football reactionary betting systems for Game 2
The start of any college football season for a team can be a huge emotional event. All of the work that went into the offseason is basically put to the test in the first game. Winning or losing that game can be a make-or-break outcome, and naturally, teams have a varying degree of response based on that result. The situational enormity of that first game or the level/type of opponent played can also play a role in how that team responds going forward. Studying the results of teams’ second games based on their first game performance is a form of system handicapping, and that is exactly what I’ve done for this article.
Think about all of the results and massive implications we witnessed this past weekend in college football and how they might impact the teams both in their next game and going forward. For instance, is Colorado for real or did the Buffs take advantage of a badly placed line against a struggling defense? Are LSU’s lofty season aspirations done? Same with Texas Tech? At the same time, is the Pac-12 as good as it showed in Week 1?
We’ll find out the answers to these questions eventually, but for now, take a look at five different concepts that you should be considering when analyzing the Game 2 lines for every team. If you aren’t in the mood for qualifying these systems for yourself, that part of the process will be done for you in our College Football Analytics Report, out late Tuesday,
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1- FCS letdown: Teams that faced an FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus an FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 72-90-5 ATS (44.5%) since 2012.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 – FCS game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off an FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 36-58-1 ATS (38.3%) since 2012.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #3 - FCS foes not adequate prep for conference play: Teams that are double-digit conference favorites in Game 2 after having just an FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS (12.5%) over the last 11 seasons.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 – Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season-opening losses of 17 points or more have responded with just a 34-52-2 ATS (39.5%) record when playing at home in Game 2 over the last decade.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 - Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 34-16 ATS (68%) run. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 16-23-2 ATS (41%) over the last 11 seasons.