T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 2
Week 2 of college football did not disappoint; from Texas taking down the Tide in Tuscaloosa to Tulane fighting tooth-and-nail before succumbing to Ole Miss, and the Ohio State offense still leaving a lot to be desired, I’m not sure anyone knows for sure who is the best team in the country. While we may not know who is best, let’s get into some teams that are trending way up and way down.
Teams I Upgraded in the T Shoe Index
They’re comin’. Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes answered the bell again this week, taking down Nebraska in impressive fashion and once again blowing a massive hole in conventional power rating wisdom. I am generally aggressive relative to the market with upgrading and downgrading teams once we get on-field data, and even I don’t know if I’m giving Colorado enough credit. I’ve upgraded them 14.4 points since preseason, which is an unprecedented rise in my T Shoe Index. I don’t know how much we’ll learn about them this week against Colorado State, but that Pac-12 schedule is looming and I can’t wait to see them against some top-tier competition. For a team projected to win less than three games in the preseason, I now have them projected to go 7-5, which admittedly still might be too low for my No. 41-ranked team.
How about Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes putting it on Jimbo Fisher and the Texas A&M Aggies? After nearly serving up a 50-burger with extra cheese, “The U” is up 8.9 points from their preseason TSI rating, making them comfortably the No. 2 team in the ACC behind Florida State (who looked dominant again this week) and No. 19 overall. Miami’s most likely record now, based on updated TSI ratings and projections, is 10-2! That would be quite the turnaround for one of the biggest underachievers of 2022.
Teams I Downgraded in the T Shoe Index
Back to little ole Clemson? After seeming like a football juggernaut for most of the last decade, the last 2 seasons have not been up to that championship level my fellow Upstate South Carolinians have become accustomed to and this season is already off to a less-than-ideal start. I had high hopes for the Tigers this year, but after an opening blowout defeat to Duke and a lackluster 3 quarters against FCS Charleston Southern, Clemson has been downgraded 8.5 points in my ratings, knocking them all the way down to No. 30 nationally and No. 6 in the ACC. My numbers do still have them most likely going 9-3, which some teams would kill for, but that’s a far cry from the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence-level dominance Tigers fans expect now.
By the way, Clemson is still +550 per DraftKings to win the ACC and Miami is +800. Not saying I’d bet it, but it is interesting.
Speaking of championship expectations off to slow starts, what is going on with Ohio State? After posting a measly 23 points against Indiana, the Buckeyes followed that up with a subpar 35 points against FCS Youngstown State, a game that they were favored by 42 points and didn’t even score that many. What started the season as my No. 1 rated offense has seen that already slip to No. 10; the silver lining is that the defense is up to No. 7 nationally. All in all, I’ve downgraded the Buckeyes 6.5 points so far, dropping them to No. 7 in the country and No. 2 in the loaded Big Ten East. As of now, TSI projects OSU to go under the season win total of 10.5, with a 10-2 record the most likely.
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.