How the T Shoe Index Performed in Week 0
Week 0 of college football has come and gone, leaving us thirsting for more football and more betting action. We will get just that with a full Labor Day weekend slate of games beginning on Thursday night, but first let’s take a look back and see how my T Shoe Index performed in Week 0.
What I Learned
“Nothing cleanses the soul like getting the hell kicked out of you.” - Woody Hayes. Woody had a point. TSI got the hell kicked out of it on totals, unquestionably; however, the silver lining is that I already have a contingency plan if Week 1 reveals more of the same. That is, by shaving 5% off of my total projections – which correlates with the approximate amount of game time lost to the new clock rules – TSI would’ve had a blistering 8-2 record on O/Us with an absolute error of 17.5, beating the closing consensus by about 2.5%. Coulda, shoulda, woulda, I know. But, it’s encouraging to know what the course of action is if things go sideways again this weekend.
Early-season ratings and projections are by far the hardest to formulate with so many moving pieces across college football, but I am more than pleased with how TSI fared against the books in week 0. Despite splitting our two best bets, my projections as a whole performed quite well, going 6-4 ATS in FBS and FCS games this weekend with an absolute error (how many points the projection was off of the actual result) of 11.4 points per game, which beat the consensus closing line (12.2) by a sizable 0.8 ppg (about 7% more accurate). The benchmark for this number historically is around 13 ppg.
While the power ratings were clearly in midseason form on this small slate, my O/U projections left a lot to be desired, going just 3-7 ATS with an absolute error of 18.6 ppg, losing to the closing census line (17.9) by .7 points per game (about 4% worse). This is not totally surprising, given the new clock rules in CFB – the clock no longer stops after a first down outside the final two minutes of each half, and, as I mentioned on Saturday morning’s “The Handle” on VSiN, I was taking a wait-and-see approach before adjusting my total projections. I’m still going to give it through the full Week 1 slate before making any final decisions, but don’t expect any “over” bets from me this week.