CFB recap Week 3: Oklahoma to win the National Championship?

T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 3

After a 2-1 week on best bets in college football, it’s almost time to gear up for one of the best slates of the college football season. Before we can make informed bets for Week 4, we need to evaluate how teams’ power ratings adjusted after their performances in Week 3. It is important to keep in mind that from a power rating standpoint, at least for my T Shoe Index, a team’s rating adjustment week-to-week isn’t just about the latest game, but a culmination of the season to date as preseason priors are phased out – more quickly in my formula than in others in the industry that I’ve talked to about this. Now that the methodology explanation is out of the way, let’s get to who’s rising and who’s falling in the TSI.

College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | Week 4 Hub

Teams I Upgraded in the T Shoe Index

Oklahoma Sooners

I would be remiss not to start this segment with my new number one team in the entire country: the Oklahoma Sooners. Sure, their schedule has not been very strong, but that’s the great thing about the opponent-adjustment of the TSI; all the data points matter and are standardized to what the average FBS team would be expected to do in a given matchup. No one has exceeded that standard more than Oklahoma, who has performed at a level 36 points above FBS average. 

For context, historically, National Championship-caliber teams have been about 28-30 points above average. The Sooners have throttled Arkansas State, SMU (who’s in the TSI Top 25), and Tulsa by a combined score of 167-28. Don’t let the schedule so far fool you, Oklahoma is for real. Worth a look: the Sooners are still +4000 at DraftKings to win the National Championship. I’m not saying they’re going to win it, but 40/1 odds might be enough to sprinkle some pizza money on them. 

Duke Blue Devils

As I mentioned, these adjustments are a culmination of performances, not necessarily just one game’s worth, and no one benefited more from its 2023 performances this week than the Duke Blue Devils. Sure, beating Northwestern by 24 isn’t all that impressive on the surface, but that walloping of Clemson in Week 1 is finally paying dividends for Mike Elko’s team, as the on-field data is now accounting for over half of the power rating and Clemson exceeded expectations the last two weeks beating Charleston Southern and FAU by a combined score of 116-31. 

Duke is now up to No. 23 in the TSI ratings and could perhaps make some noise in a lackluster ACC. They are +1100 to win the ACC at DraftKings, something I found interesting from a betting perspective. Honorable mention teams on the rise include: Boston College, Ohio State, Navy, Cal, Colorado State, Texas State, Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State.

Teams I Downgraded in the T Shoe Index

Florida State Seminoles

I was anticipating the Florida State Seminoles being my No. 1 team at this point heading into their game against Boston College last week. They let me down, escaping Chestnut Hill with a mere 31-29 win against what was formerly the lowest-rated team in the Power Five; therefore, they find themselves with a significant downgrade this week. The ‘Noles are still my No. 8 team in the country, and I’ve already bet them -1 against Clemson this week in a game they certainly can regain some ground from a power rating perspective with a solid performance in Death Valley. 

But for now, the -7 game grade from Week 3 lands them on this list. For a buy-low spot, you can get Florida State +1200 to win the National Championship, and rest assured that number will shrink if they get a win this week at Clemson, so if you think they have a chance to hoist the CFP trophy, now would be the time to buy. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys

What in the world has happened to the Oklahoma State Cowboys? I didn’t have super high expectations for them coming into the season, but they are now rated dead last in the Big 12 after a humbling 26-point loss to the South Alabama Jaguars at home. I’m not sure TSI can even downgrade them quickly enough after they’ve now posted game grades of -15.8, -3.8 and -21.8. Stock way down on the Cowboys. 

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.