Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down today’s College Football slate from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat presented by DraftKings.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s College Football action…
12 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (-6, 53.5) vs Arkansas
This game will be played at a neutral site: AT&T Stadium home of the Dallas Cowboys. Texas A&M (3-1) has won two straight and just took down Auburn 27-10, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Arkansas (2-2) has lost two straight and just fell to LSU 34-31 but covered as 17.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as high as a 7-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning with the Aggies, as 54% of bets are laying the points with Texas A&M. However, we’ve actually seen the Aggies fall from -7 to -6. If Texas A&M is the popular bet, shouldn’t the line be moving in their favor, not against them? This signals pro money grabbing the points with Arkansas, triggering sharp money in their favor. The Razorbacks are receiving 46% of bets but 58% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Arkansas also has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leading to tighter games and benefiting the team getting points. Arkansas is also in a buy-low, sell-high spot having lost two straight while Texas A&M has won two straight. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 53.5. This line movement is notable because 71% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell, indicating wiseguy money on a lower scoring game.
12 p.m. ET: Florida at Kentucky (-1, 44)
Florida (3-1) is ranked 22nd and has won three straight, most recently taking down Charlotte 22-7 last week but failing to cover as 28-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kentucky (4-0) is undefeated but also unranked. The Wildcats just beat Vanderbilt 45-28, covering as 13.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Why is the unranked team favored over the ranked team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around. Early money jumped on Florida plus the points, dropping the line from Kentucky -3 to -1. At this point, Kentucky presents buy-low value as a deflated home favorite laying a short number. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 39-31 ATS (56%) since 2017. Pros have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 48 to 44. Currently 27% of bets but 47% of money is taking the under, a notable sharp contrarian under bet split.
6 p.m. ET: LSU (-2.5, 67.5) at Ole Miss
LSU (3-1) is ranked 13th and just edged Arkansas 34-31 but failed to cover as 17.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ole Miss (3-1) is ranked 20th and just fell to Alabama 24-10, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with LSU. However, despite receiving 82% of bets we’ve seen LSU fall from -4.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Ole Miss, with pro bettors grabbing the points with the unpopular home dog. Ole Miss is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 18% of bets in the most heavily bet game of the day. Those looking to play Ole Miss would be wise to hunt for the key number of +3. Sharps have also hammered the over, raising the total from 63.5 to 67.5. This steam move is notable because 63% of bets are taking the under, yet the total rose. This indicates some rare contrarian over smart money. The forecast calls for high 80s, partly cloudy with mild 5 MPH winds.
More Sharp Moves
Memphis -2 to -3 vs Boise State
Auburn +17.5 to +14.5 vs Georgia
Troy +3 to +1.5 at Georgia State
Southern Miss +7.5 to +6.5 vs Texas State