Wednesday Best Bets, Tuesday Recaps
Tuesday was again spent in the Tuley's Takes home office following the wall-to-wall college basketball tournaments, with a minor diversion as my wife took me to Dona Maria Tamales-Northwest restaurant for Taco Tuesday. But I didn’t have any tacos as I had a beef burrito, cheese enchilada, beans, rice and champurrado (Mexican hot chocolate).
The night was paid for by a Best Bet win on my NHL 1P Over parlay on the Flyers-Lightning and Ducks-Kraken as I posted it in yesterday’s column at +178 but we actually got +190 on Tuesday afternoon here in Vegas. Both legs of the parlay were relatively easy as the Flyers and Lightning traded goals in the first 7:38 of their game and the Kraken needed just 10:58 to get two goals against the Ducks.
I did lose my play on the Flyers +1.5 +105 against the Lightning even though they scored first, but the Lightning scored four unanswered goals on the way to a 5-2 victory. At least I passed on the other puck-line game I mentioned as Sharks +1.5 +120 was a clear loser in a 6-0 shutout by the Avalanche.
The night wasn’t without regret as I mentioned in yesterday’s column that I felt the best college basketball play of the day was NC Wilmington +9 vs. College of Charleston. I passed as I would have felt more comfortable fading COC if it was a lock for an NCAA at-large bid. There’s an old saying that “scared money doesn’t make money,” so I wish I had gone with my first instinct as NC Wilmington covered in its 63-58 loss. Unfortunately, I feel like I missed out on quite a few underdogs on Tuesday as you’ll see in the recaps below that faves went 18-7 SU in the 25 conference tournament games yesterday; however, in addition to the 7 outright upsets, there were a whopping 11 underdogs that covered the spread in losses to go 18-7 ATS (72%).
I think that at least showed that parity is alive and well in college basketball as we’ve seen all season and hopefully that continues throughout this week and the rest of March Madness.
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s action in the major team sports and then look for plays on Wednesday. We lead off with a college basketball Best Bet and then have another NHL First-Period parlay plus an NHL underdog.
NBA: Faves/dogs split 4-4 SU Tuesday, but dogs led 6-2 ATS as the Jazz (+11 in 120-116 loss at Mavericks) and Pistons (+10.5 in 119-117 loss vs. Wizards) covered in losses. The upsets were by the Hornets (+10 at Knicks), Thunder (+4 vs. Warriors), 76ers (+3 at Timberwolves) and Lakers (+1 vs. Grizzlies). Road teams went 5-3 SU and ATS. Unders led 4-3-1 with the push in Jazz-Mavericks game with a total of 236.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 635-334 SU with 15 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs improved their lead to 481-465-23 (50.8%). Home teams lead 580-404 SU and 501-462-21 ATS (52%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead was cut to 491-478-15 (50.7%).
CBB: No. 9 Gonzaga routed No. 16 Saint Mary's 77-51 for the West Coast Conference tournament title in Las Vegas, easily covering as a 2.5-point fave (game stayed Under betting total of 140.5 points). In Tuesday’s conference tournament game, faves went 18-7 SU, but dogs covered in a whopping 11 SU losses to lead 18-7 ATS (72%).
NHL: Faves went 7-3 with the upsets by the Flames (+126 in 1-0 win at Wild in shootout), Coyotes (+120 in 6-2 win vs. Blues) and Maple Leafs (+116 in 4-3 win at Devils). Home teams went 7-3. Overs led 6-4.
Wednesday college basketball Best Bet
Wisconsin +2 vs. Ohio State: According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Wisconsin is on his “First Four Out” list and needs this game (and at least one and maybe two more wins for an at-large bid), so I’m a little surprised that we’re getting a couple of point here – but we’ll take them. The Badgers are down this year and just 17-13 SU and 13-16-1 ATS, but the Buckeyes are even worse at 13-18 SU and 11-20 ATS. Wisky has lost three straight, but Ohio State is 1-7 in its last 8 games. In addition, Wisconsin won the two regular-season meetings, 78-68 at home and 65-60 on the road. I’m On Wisconsin.
Wednesday NHL Best Bets
Wild-Jets 1P Under 1.5 -115 / Ducks-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -150 (parlay pays +212): I don’t often do this, but I’m parlaying a 1P Under to a 1P Over. I think you’ll see why as we run through the numbers as the Wild and Jets are the No. 1 and No. 3 1P Under teams and combine to hit 52-76 (59.4%) and are a rare 1P Under 1.5 favorite. Meanwhile, the Canucks and Ducks are the No. 1 and No. 2 1P Over teams (thanks to the Ducks, who had been slumping, going Over in their last 4) to combine for 89-38 (70.1%). And we’re getting better than 2-1 if both hit.
Blackhawks +195 at Red WIngs: This is a “mini-swagger play” on the Blackhawks as they snapped a 5-game losing streak on Monday in a 5-0 rout vs. the Senators. That gives a team a lot of swagger and it’s not like they’re facing a powerhouse in Detroit, which is just a few games over .500 and shouldn't be laying more than -200 against anyone. Some followers might opt for the puck line (Blackhawks +1.5 -130), but we’re sticking with the straight money line.
XFL Week 4 Best Bet
San Antonio Brahmas +3 at Seattle Sea Dragons: San Antonio let us down on Sunday night, but that was against the league’s top team in Houston and now the Brahmas get a step down in class against Seattle, which picked up its first victory against a winless Vegas team (and needed a spectacular play from Josh Gordon or they’d be 0-3). Circa opened this line Sunday night and I actually think the wrong team is favored as the market is overrating Seattle and underrating San Antonio. Despite a 1-2 record, San Antonio is tied for No. 2 in scoring defense at 17.3 points a game while Seattle allows the third-worst at 22.7. We jumped the gun too soon on this as the line went up to Seattle -4.5 by Tuesday, but that’s OK as we love being contrarian and will bet it again at the best number we can get.
VSiN Conference Tournament Previews
AAC | ACC | BIG EAST | BIG TEN | BIG 12 | BIG WEST | C-USA | IVY | MAC | MOUNTAIN WEST | PAC-12 | SEC | WAC