Tuesday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 28, 2023 12:19 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

Be sure to check out the VSiN Betting Splits for every game as well.

Let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's College Basketball slate...

9 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Boise State (-2, 134.5)

San Diego State (23-5, ranked 18th) has won six straight games and just edged New Mexico 73-71 but failed to cover as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Boise State (22-7) just saw their four game win streak come to an end, falling to San Jose State 74-68 in overtime, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, doesn't this opening line seem fishy? Shouldn't San Diego State be the favorite due to their superior record and ranking? Sharps smell a rat and have laid the short chalk with the home team, steaming Boise State up from -1 to -2. Boise State is receiving 54% of bets but 83% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 33-17 ATS (66%) this season. Boise State is 13-1 at home. Ken Pom has Boise State winning by one point (67-66). This is a revenge spot for Boise State, who fell to San Diego State 72-52 as 7-point road dogs back on February 3rd. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5. 

9 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Tennessee (-6.5, 134)

Arkansas (19-10) just had their two game win streak snapped, falling to Alabama 86-83 but covering as 8-point road dogs. On the other hand, Tennessee (21-8, ranked 12th) just snapped their two game losing streak with an 85-45 blowout win over South Carolina, covering as 23.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 7-point home favorite. We've seen Tennessee fall from -7 to -6.5, with some shops even inching down to -6. This signals pro money grabbing the points with road dog Arkansas. The Razorbacks are receiving 59% of bets but 85% of money, indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in their favor. Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 250-185 ATS (58%) this season. Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by seven points (70-63). Arkansas has the edge offensively (75 PPG vs 72 PPG) and the better shooting (48% vs 43%). 

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