Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 4, 2023 01:54 AM

Be sure to visit the VSiN Bet Splits page for all of today's College Basketball data. 


12 p.m. ET: Alabama at Texas A&M (-2, 150.5)

Alabama (26-4, ranked 2nd) has won four straight games and just beat Auburn 90-85 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (22-8, ranked 24th) has won seven of their last eight games and just took down Ole Miss 69-61, covering as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public can't believe the number two team in the country is laying such a short number and they're rushing to the window to back the Crimson Tide. However, despite Alabama receiving 65% of bets, the line has flipped to Texas A&M -2. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on the home team, with pros throwing their support behind Texas A&M. The Aggies are receiving 35% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. SEC home favorites are 61-17 (78%) straight up in conference play this season. Texas A&M is 14-1 at home.


2 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Auburn (-2, 131)

Tennessee (22-8, ranked 12th) has won two straight games and just crushed Arkansas 75-57, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Auburn (19-11) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Alabama 90-85 in overtime but covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is this only a coin-flip game? Shouldn't Tennessee be a much bigger favorite due to their superior record and ranking? Pros smell a rate and have sided with the fishy home team, steaming Auburn up to a 2-point home favorite. Auburn is receiving 52% of bets but 90% of money, a massive smart money discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 35-17 ATS (67%) this season. SEC home favorites are 61-17 (78%) straight up in conference play. Auburn is 13-2 at home.


 4 p.m. ET: Kansas at Texas (-3.5, 148.5) 

Kansas (25-5, ranked 3rd) has won seven straight games and just edged Texas Tech 67-63 but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. Conversely, Texas (22-8, ranked 9th) has dropped two straight and just fell to TCU 75-73 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're hammering Kansas plus the points. However, despite this public bias we've actually the line move further to Texas -2.5 to -3.5. This signals wiseguys fading the trendy dog and instead laying points with the contrarian favorite Longhorns. Texas is receiving 30% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. When two top ten teams face off, the favorite is 21-6 ATS (78%) over the past two seasons. Big 12 home favorites are 50-20 (71%) straight up this season. Texas is 16-1 at home. 

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