Thursday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 2, 2023 01:31 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

Be sure to check out the VSiN Betting Splits for every game as well.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's College Basketball slate...


12:30 p.m. ET: Appalachian State vs South Alabama (-4.5, 130)

This is the second round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. Appalachian State (16-15) has rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just fell to Georgia Southern 73-64, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. On the other hand, South Alabama (16-15) just saw their five game winning streak come to an end, falling to Louisiana 74-64 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with South Alabama listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Pros have laid the short chalk, steaming South Alabama up from -3.5 to -4.5. South Alabama is receiving 73% of bets but 88% of money, signaling both sharp and public support. Ken Pom has South Alabama winning by four points (67-63). South Alabama has the better shooting (47% vs 44%). South Alabama crushed Appalachian State 74-57  back on February 11th. 


11 p.m. ET: Arizona (-2.5, 155.5) at USC

Arizona (24-5. ranked 8th) just saw their two game win streak come to an end, falling to Arizona State 89-88 and losing outright as 12.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, USC (21-8) has won four straight games and just took down Utah 62-49, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is all over Arizona, with 81% of bets laying the points with the Wildcats. This lopsided betting has driven Arizona up from -1 to -2.5. However, now that the line has risen so much, we're seeing buyback on USC, with the +2.5 juiced to -115.This signals a possible fall back down to 2. USC is the top contrarian play of the night receiving only 19% of bets. Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 257-101 ATS (57%). Ken Pom has Arizona winning by one point (80-79), which provides actionable value to USC at the current number. 

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