Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 11, 2023 03:32 AM

Track the bets and dollars on every game using our VSiN Betting Splits


1 p.m. ET: Saint Louis vs VCU (-3.5, 141.5)

This is the Atlantic 10 semifinal. Saint Louis (21-11) just crushed George Mason 82-54 in the quarterfinals, cruising as 5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, VCU (25-7) just brushed aside Davidson 71-53 in the quarterfinals, easily covering as 7-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with VCU listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points. However, despite receiving 69% of bets, we've seen VCU fall from -4 to -3.5. This signals smart money grabbing the points with Saint Louis, causing reverse line movement in favor of the day. Ken Pom has VCU winning by three points (73-70), which provides actionable value to Saint Louis plus the hook. Saint Louis has the edge on offense (76 PPG vs 71 PPG) and in the rebounding department (38 RPG vs 33 RPG). 


1 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs Purdue (-7, 134)

This is the Big Ten semifinals. Ohio State (16-18) just upset Michigan State 68-58 in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 6-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Purdue (27-5, ranked 5th) just beat Rutgers 70-65 in the quarterfinals, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. We've seen this line remain frozen at Purdue -7 or even touch down to -6.5 at some shops. Reading between the lines, all liability appears to be on Ohio State plus the points. Unranked teams vs ranked teams are 276-208 ATS (57%) this season. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by six points (74-68), which provides value on Ohio State plus the current number. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 135.5. to 134. Currently 29% of bets but 47% of money is on the under, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. 

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