Wednesday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 15, 2023 04:50 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game as well. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's college basketball action...


7 p.m. ET: Central Florida vs Florida (-2.5, 143.5)

This is the NIT first round. Central Florida (18-14) has won three of their last five games but just fell to Memphis 81-76 in the AAC quarterfinals, covering as 5.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Florida (16-16) went just 3-7 over their last ten games and just fell to Mississippi State 69-68 in the second round of the SEC tournament but covered as 5-point dogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Florida, a big name school laying a short spread at home. However, despite 65% of bets backing Florida, the Gators have fallen from -4 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UCF, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. UCF is receiving 35% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 141.5 to 143.5. UCF is 19-12-1 to the over this season. Florida is 5-0 to the over their last five home games. 


10 p.m. ET: Utah Valley vs New Mexico (-5.5, 163)

This is the NIT first round. Utah Valley (25-8) just saw their four game win streak come to an end, falling to Southern Utah 89-88 and losing outright as 4-point favorites in the WAC semifinals. Meanwhile, New Mexico (22-11) went just 3-8 over their last 11 games and just fell to Utah State 91-76 in the Mountain West quarterfinals, failing to cover as 3.5-point dogs. This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 6-point home favorite. Currently 61% of bets are laying the points with New Mexico at home. However, despite this public betting we've seen New Mexico fall from -6 to -5.5. This signals respected money grabbing the points with the dog. Ken Pom has New Mexico winning by five points, which provides actionable value to Utah Valley plus the hook. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game as the total has been steamed up from 160 to 163. New Mexico, one of the fastest tempo teams in the country, is 22-10-1 to the over. 

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