Tuley: Wednesday Best Bets in NBA, NHL; Tuesday recaps; early NCAA Final Four play

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 29, 2023 05:02 AM
 

 

Wednesday Best Bets, Tuesday Recaps

Tuesday was spent catching up on some errands and chores from while I was away, plus taking care of my wife who tested positive for COVID (slight case, probably picked up at the rehab hospital where she works, though who knows). I had a 24-hour bug last week, but tested negative.

Anyway, we felt pretty good about my Best Bet of the day on the Pelicans +9 at the Warriors as New Orleans built a 20-point lead. However, GSW rallied to not only win the game but cover in a 120-109 victory. We also lost our NHL First-Period parlay as the Canadiens-Flyers were scoreless in the first 20 minutes of that leg (for the record, the second leg won easily with Canucks-Blues playing to a 2-2 tie in the first period).

We can’t complain too much with the way our plays have gone lately, but it was still a disappointing night.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting action and look for better plays on Wednesday, plus our early play for the Final Four.

Tuesday Recaps

NIT: UAB beat Utah Valley 88-86 in OT of 2nd NIT semifinal at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas (went Over total of 151.5 points in OT), but didn't cover after closing as 4.5-point favorite. Earlier North Texas rallied to beat Wisconsin 56-54 and covered as 1.5-point fave (stayed Under 115).

NBA: Faves went 4-2 SU on Tuesday, but dogs led 4-2 ATS as the Magic (+6 in 113-108 loss at Grizzlies) and Cavaliers (+2.5 in 120-118 loss at Hawks) covered as dogs in losses. The upsets were by the Wizards (+11 in 130-111 win vs. Celtics) and Hornets (+10 in 137-134 win at Thunder). Home teams went 5-1 SU but split 3-3 ATS. Unders led 4-2.

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 741-378 SU with 16 games closing pick-'em, but dogs regained the lead at 548-547-24 ATS. Home teams lead 664-471 SU and 575-538-22 ATS (51.7%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead was cut to 564-554-17 (50.4%).

NHL: Faves went 5-4 with Canucks-Blues closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Predators (+260 in 2-1 win at Bruins), Sharks (+175 in 3-0 win vs. Jets), Red Wings (+163 in 7-4 win vs. Penguins) and Lightning (+120 in 4-0 win at Hurricanes). Home teams went 6-4. Unders also led 6-4.

Karl_Anthony-Towns_Timberwolves

Wednesday NBA Best Bet

Timberwolves +6.5 at Suns: The Timberwolves come in with a four-game winning streak while the Suns have been struggling, dropping six of nine though they’ve won their last two. The T-Wolves had an impressive 119-115 win in front of a hostile crowd in Sacramento on Monday night, and that was without Karl Anthony-Towns. He’s probable to return tonight, and Minnesota might also get back Taurean Prince. The Suns might get back Kevin Durant, so that’s why I suspect we’re getting this generous price, which is fine by me.

Wednesday NHL Best Bet

Wild-Avalanche 1P Under 1.5 +105: With 1P Overs being so hot across the league lately, we haven’t had cause to play a 1P Under, but we’re getting to the point where the books are juicing the Overs so much that we might be seeing some value with the Unders. Let’s test the theory tonight with the Wild, who are still the top 1P Under team at 42-30 (58.3%). The Avalanche are a slight 1P Over team, but I still believe the Wild’s style of play will prevail at the plus-price.

NCAA March Madness Final Four Best Bet

San Diego State-Florida Atlantic 1H Under 61: We’re going back to the well with the First-Half Under. The handicap is similar to Sunday’s San Diego State-Creighton game as the Aztecs are ranked No. 4 in defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com, with FAU rated No. 29. There should be plenty of contested shots and the teams feeling each other out in the opening 20 minutes (and you don’t have to worry about a potential foul-fest spoiling the Under like you do in a full-game wager). I’m still handicapping the sides in Saturday’s Final Four with an early lean to Miami-Fla. +5.5 vs. UConn, but basically wanting to figure out what I missed with my losing bet on Gonzaga vs. UConn on Saturday night.

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