Tuley: NCAA Sweet 16 Best Bet for Thursday, plus NHL; Wednesday recaps

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 23, 2023 03:43 AM


Thursday Best Bets, Wednesday Recaps

Wednesday wasn’t your ordinary hump day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We won our posted Best Bet on Eastern Kentucky +4.5 (closed +5.5) vs. Charlotte in the CBI Championship game. It didn’t look so good as Charlotte came out red-hot and EKU trailed by 20 points on several occasions, including with 12:12 left in regulation, but fortunately the Colonels rallied to cover in a 71-68 loss.

I would normally say that was the highlight of the day, but then I took my wife and daughter Peyton – the theater major – to the “Mean Girls” musical at The Smith Center for the Performing Arts in downtown Las Vegas (and since it was Wednesday, we wore pink for those who get that reference).

But the night wasn’t all rainbows and smiles as I lost my other plays on the Bulls +3.5 vs. the 76ers in a 116-91 rout and my NHL First-Period Over parlay as the Penguins and Avalanche played a scoreless 20 minutes before scoring 7 goals in the next two periods while the Coyotes-Oilers did hit their 1P Over 1.5 with a 1-1 tie.

Let’s get to Wednesday’s (full-game) recaps and then look for more Best Bets on Thursday with the NCAA Tournament resuming with the Sweet 16.

Wednesday Recaps

NBA: Faves went 8-2 SU but split 5-5 ATS as the Mavericks (+3.5 in 127-125 win vs. Warriors), Hawks (+3 in 125-124 win at Timberwolves) and Rockets (+12 in 130-125 loss at Grizzlies) covered in losses. The upsets were by the Pacers (+9 at Raptors) and Blazers (+5.5 at Jazz). Home/road teams split 5-5 SU but road teams led 6-4 ATS. Overs led 6-3-1 w/ push in IND-TOR (232).

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 708-368 SU with 16 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 530-522-24 ATS (50.4%). Home teams lead 635-457 SU and 550-520-22 ATS (51.4%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 547-529-16 (50.8%).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 1-1 as Penguins (+128) upset Avalanche 5-2 and Oilers (-500) beat Coyotes 4-3. Faves went 0-2 on the -1.5 puck line. Home/road teams also split 1-1. Overs went 1-0-1 with Penguins-Avalanche going Over 6.5 goals and Coyotes-Oilers pushing on 7.

CBB: UAB (-2) beat Vanderbilt 67-59 and Utah Valley (-1.5) beat Cincinnati 74-68 as both teams won and covered, UAB on the road and Utah Valley at home in the NIT quarterfinals as the semis are now set for next week in Las Vegas for the first time. Both games also stayed Under their totals of 152.5 and 148.5.

More CBB: Earlier, Charlotte held off Eastern Kentucky 71-68 to win the CBI Tournament in Daytona Beach. Fla. The ViewFromVegas is EKU rallied to cover after closing as a 5.5-point underdog despite trailing by 20 points, 58-38, with 12:12 left (game went Over closing betting total of 133.5 points).

NCAA Tournament (ICYMI): Unders dominated at 24-8 (75%) in the first round and continued that pace at 6-2 on Saturday before Overs went 6-2 on Sunday to finish 8-8 in the second round, so Unders are now 32-16 (66.7%) overall. Faves were 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS in the first round. Faves went 10-6 SU in the second round but dogs led 9-6-1 ATS. Faves now 34-14 SU and 24-23-1 ATS so far heading into the Sweet 16.


NCAA March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets

Kansas State +1 vs. Michigan State (Thursday): The No. 3-seeded Kansas State Wildcats were disrespected as 3-point underdogs vs. No. 6 Kentucky in Sunday’s round of 32, but point guard Markquis Nowell led the way along with the KSU defense (No. 19 in defensive efficiency by kenpom.com). Some books opened K-State as the favorite here or at pick-’em, but early money has pushed Michigan State to favoritism. I understand that Tom Izzo gets his teams to peak in March, but I still have the Wildcats as the better overall team and will take any points (or point) we can get.

(Update: line went up to Michigan State -2 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but back down to +1.5 at most books as of early Thursday)

Princeton +10 vs. Creighton (Friday): This is similar to the FAU-FDU game where there’s no way that the fledgling Florida Atlantic program should have been favored by 15.5 points against Fairleigh Dickinson after its upset of Purdue. Princeton’s run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed seems to be overshadowed by FDU’s performance, but we don’t believe the Tigers should be 10-point dogs after going toe-to-toe with and beating No. 2 seed Arizona and No 7 Missouri. Creighton came through for yours truly on Sunday, but the Bluejays are more likely to just try to grind out the win here to earn a trip to the Elite Eight.

Thursday NHL Best Bet

Lightning-Senators 1P Over 1.5 -165 / Sharks-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -165 (parlay pays +158): Despite the loss on Wednesday, we’re still up 5.63 units with these plays since the Super Bowl, so we’ll fire again with this parlay. The Lightning and Senators are both in the Top 10 1P Over teams at 83-59 (58.5%) with the Lightning on a 7-3 run. The Canucks are the No. 1 1P Over team at 51-18 and are on a 17-5 run, plus combine with the Sharks to go 91-49 (65%) as the stronger play though they’re both priced around the same.


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