Tuesday NIT Sharp Report

March 28, 2023 01:17 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NIT semifinal doubleheader...


7 p.m. ET: Wisconsin vs North Texas (-1.5, 115.5)

Wisconsin (20-14) just edged Oregon 61-58 in the NIT quarterfinals, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs .On the other hand, North Texas (29-7) just upset Oklahoma State 65-59, winning outright as 4.5-point dogs. This line opened with North Texas listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The line hasn't moved off North Texas -1.5. However, a closer look at the betting splits reveals 46% of bets but 60% of money on North Texas, signaling a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. If we see this line tick up from -1.5 to -2 on game day that will indicate further support for North Texas. Ken Pom has North Texas winning by three points (61-58). He also has North Texas ranked much higher (33rd vs 62nd). Both teams are averaging roughly 65 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where North Texas is allowing just 57 PPG compared to 64 PPG for Wisconsin. The total has ticked up slightly from 115 to 115.5, signaling some respected money leaning over the incredibly low total. North Texas is the slowest team in college basketball (59 possessions per game). Wisconsin is the 22nd slowest (63.4 tempo). 


9:30 p.m. ET: Utah Valley vs UAB (-3, 151.5)

Utah Valley (28-8) just took down Cincinnati 74-68 in the NIT quarterfinals, covering as 2-point favorites. On the flip side, UAB (28-9) just handled Vanderbilt 67-59, easily covering as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with UAB listed as a short 2-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with UAB, steaming the Blazers up from -2 to -3. UAB is receiving 74% of bets and 83% of money, signaling a combination of both heavy public and sharp support. Ken Pom has UAB winning by two points (78-76). He also has UAB ranked higher (44th vs 64th). UAB has additional buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (17-18-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (24-9 ATS). UAB is -160 on the moneyline. NIT favorites are 17-9 (65%) straight up this postseason and 177-82 (68%) straight up since 2014. UAB holds the edge on offense (81 PPG vs 77 PPG). 

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: Sunday Bet Prep

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.