Tuesday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 14, 2023 02:46 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p,m. ET. 

You can also track the VSIN Betting Splits for every game as well.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's College Basketball slate...

Title bets | Betting Guide | Bracket Guide | Round 1 previews | First Four

9 p.m. ET: Villanova at Liberty (-3, 137)

This is the first round of the NIT. Villanova (17-16) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Creighton 87-74 in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 4.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Liberty (26-8) just saw their five game win streak come to an end, falling to Kennesaw State 67-66 in the ASUN championship game, losing outright as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Liberty listed as low as a 2-point home favorite. The public is grabbing the points with big name school Villanova. However, despite Nova receiving 80% of bets, we've seen Liberty get steamed up from -2 to -3. This signals pro money laying the points with Liberty, who is a true home favorite as this is not a neutral site game. Ken Pom has Liberty winning by four points (72-68). He has Liberty ranked 48th and Villanova 60th. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 140 to 137. Villanova is one of the slowest tempo teams in the nation (63.7 possessions per game). Liberty is also a slow team (64.5). 


9:10 p.m. ET: Mississippi State (-2, 133.5) vs Pittsburgh

This is the NCAA Tournament First Four matchup in the Midwest Region. Both teams are vying for the 11-seed and the winner will face Iowa State. Mississippi State (21-12) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Alabama 72-49 in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 8-point dogs. Similarly, Pittsburgh (22-11) has lost three of their last four games and just got rolled by Duke 96-69 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 5.5-point dogs. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Currently 60% of bets are taking the points with Pittsburgh. However, we've seen this line move further toward Mississippi State -1.5 to -2. Some shops are even touching -2.5. This signals wiseguys fading the trendy dog and instead backing the contrarian favorite Bulldogs. Ken Pom has Mississippi State winning by two points (67-65). He has Mississippi State ranked higher as well (49th vs 77th). Mississippi State is -135 on the moneyline.

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Previews of all First-Round Games

Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines

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Peterson’s Daily CBB Podcast

VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast

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