Sunday March Madness Sharp Report

By Josh Appelbaum (VSIN.com) Follow @josh_insights

March 19, 2023 02:04 AM

Another exciting day of March Madness action is ahead of us on Sunday. Be sure to read our previews for every game, and check out our best bets file.

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game.

Let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's March Madness games ...

2:40 p.m. ET: Kentucky (-2.5, 145) vs Kansas State

Kentucky (22-11) is the 6-seed and just took down 11-seed Providence 61-53, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas State (24-9) is the 3-seed and just beat 14-seed Montana State 77-65, covering as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a short 1.5-point favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the 6-seed favored over the 3-seed? Shouldn't it be the other way around? The public is grabbing the points with trendy dog Kansas State. However, despite Kansas State receiving 55% of bets we've actually seen this line move further to Kentucky -1.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even up to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kentucky, with pros laying the points with the fishy contrarian Wildcats. Kentucky is -150 on the moneyline. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 145.5 to 145. Unders are 31-11 (74%) in March Madness thus far.

5:15 p.m. ET: Michigan State vs Marquette (-2.5, 140.5)

Michigan State (20-12) is the 7-seed and just took down 10-seed USC 72-62, covering as 2.5-point favorites On the flip side, Marquette (29-6) is the 2-seed and just crushed 15-seed Vermont 78-61, covering as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Marquette listed as a 3-point favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they're rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Marquette. However, despite receiving 76% of bets we've seen Marquette fall from -3 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering Marquette to begin with? Because pros have grabbed the points with Michigan State, triggering sharp reverse line movement in Sparty's favor. Michigan State is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 24% of bets. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 141 to 140.5. The under is receiving 68% of bets but 83% of money, a notable sharp under discrepancy. Michigan State plays at a very slow tempo (64.9 possessions per game).