Sunday Elite 8 Sharp Report

March 26, 2023 03:35 AM

The Elite 8 continues with two more Sunday matchups today. Be sure to check our VSiN Betting Splits for the latest betting odds and percentages.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NCAA Tournament games...


2:20 p.m. ET: Creighton (-2, 134.5) vs San Diego State

Creighton (24-12) is the 6-seed and just brushed aside Princeton 86-75 in the Sweet 16, covering as 10-point favorites. On the other hand, San Diego State (30-6) is the 5-seed and just upset Alabama 71-64, winning outright as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which side to back. However, despite this even bet count we've seen Creighton creep up from -1.5 to -2. Some shops have even touched -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this move signals smart money laying the points with the short favorite. Creighton is receiving 50% of bets but 65% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Creighton winning by one point (68-67). Creighton has the better offensive (77 PPG vs 72 PPG), better shooting (47% vs 44%) and better free throw percentage (78% vs 73%). Creighton is -135 on the moneyline. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5. 


5:05 p.m. ET: Miami vs Texas (-4, 149)

Miami (28-7) is the 5-seed and just took down Houston 89-75 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 7.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Texas (29-8) is the 2-seed and just beat Xavier 83-71, covering as 4.5-point favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 4-point favorite. Once again, the public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, a closer look at the spread signals some liability on Miami. Some shops opened at -4.5 and fell to -4 while other have briefly dipped to -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been toward Miami. Ken Pom has Texas winning by five points (79-74). Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 149.5 to 149. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Texas ranks 9th in adjusted defense. 


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