Saturday March Madness Sharp Report

March 18, 2023 01:03 AM

12:10 p.m. ET: Furman vs San Diego State (-5.5, 137.5)

Furman (28-7) is the 13-seed and just took down 4-seed Virginia 68-67 in the opening round, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, San Diego State (28-6) is the 5-seed and just edged 12-seed Charleston 63-57, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 6.5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this even ticket split we've seen San Diego State fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp money grabbing the points with Furman. Furman holds a big edge offensively (82 PPG compared to 72 PPG) and has a better field goal percentage (48% vs 44%). The total is 137.5. The under is receiving 74% of bets and 85% of money. Unders are 26-9 (74%) so far in March Madness.


2:40 p.m. ET: Duke (-3.5, 129) vs Tennessee

Duke (27-8) is the 5-seed and just crushed 12-seed Oral Roberts 74-51, easily covering as 6-point favorites. On the flip side, Tennessee (24-10) is the 4-seed and just edged 13-seed Louisiana 58-55, failing to cover as 11.5-point favorites. This line opened with Duke listed as low as a 2-point favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have steamed Duke up from -2 to -3.5. Duke is receiving 85% of bets and 90% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. Duke is -175 on the moneyline. Duke has the superior shooting (45% vs 43%) and shoots better from the free throw line (77% vs 71%). Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 128.5 to 129.


5:15 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Kansas (-3.5, 143.5)

Arkansas (21-13) is the 8-seed and just beat 9-seed Illinois 73-63, cruising as 2.5-point favorites, Meanwhile, Kansas (28-7) is the 1-seed and just crushed 16-seed Howard 96-68, covering as 22-point favorites. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 4.5-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Jayhawks. However, despite receiving 85% of bets, Kansas has fallen from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the dog, with pros grabbing the points with Arkansas. Arkansas is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 15% of bets. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 145.5 to 143.5. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 74% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. 

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Jason Weingarten: Princeton (+10) vs Creighton. View more picks.


The Handle: The American League playoff picture is going to be highly competitive. Look to bet overs on win totals as opposed to a team making the playoffs. View more tips.