Saturday Final Four Sharp Report

April 1, 2023 02:40 AM

Welcome to the Final Four! Be sure to check the VSiN Betting Splits page for the latest odds and percentages on every game. In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's games...


6:09 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State (-2.5, 131.5)

Florida Atlantic (35-3) just took down Kansas State 79-76 in the Elite 8, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, San Diego State (31-6) just edged Creighton 57-56, winning outright as 2.5-point dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Early in the week we saw San Diego State move from -2 to -2.5, signaling some respected money laying the points. Currently 54% of bets are backing the Aztecs. Some books reached Aztecs -3, at which point we saw sharp buyback on FAU +3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. FAU is receiving 46% of bets but 63% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has San Diego State winning the game by one point (67-66), which provides an added edge on FAU +2.5. FAU is 6-2 ATS as a dog this season. FAU holds the edge offensively (78 PPG vs 72 PPG), has the better shooting (47% vs 44%), three point shooting (37% vs 35%) and free throw shooting (37% vs 35%). Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 132.5 to 131.5. Both teams rank top 30 in adjusted defense. The under is receiving 44% of bets but 54% of money, a sharp discrepancy. Unders are 39-25 (61%) in March Madness. 


8:49 p.m. ET: Miami vs Connecticut (-5.5, 149)

Miami (29-7) just upset Texas 88-81 in the Elite 8, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Connecticut (29-8) just crushed Gonzaga 82-54, easily cruising as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 5-point favorite. Wiseguys laid the points early on, driving the Huskies up from -5 to -5.5. Currently 61% of bets are laying the points, making UConn the top public play of Final Four Saturday. It looked as though this line was headed to UConn -6 throughout the week but it never got there, signaling some liability and buyback on Miami +5.5. Miami is 9-2 ATS as a dog this season, including 3-0 SU as a dog this NCAA Tournament. Miami will bank on their offense to keep it close, averaging 80 PPG. Both teams rank in the top 5 in adjusted offense. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 149.5 to 149. This dip is notable because 68% of bets are on the over yet the total fall, indicating a sharp under reverse line move. 

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