Saturday Elite 8 Sharp Report

March 25, 2023 02:38 AM


Welcome to the Elite 8!

Be sure to visit the VSiN Betting Splits page for detailed betting breakdowns of every matchup. In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's Elite 8 action...


6:09 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State (-2, 144)

Florida Atlantic (34-3) is the 9-seed and just took down Tennessee 62-55 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 4.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Kansas State (26-9) is the 3-seed and just outlasted Michigan State 98-83 in an overtime thriller, covering as 1-point favorites. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a short 2-point favorite. The public sees an easy with an cover for Kansas State and they're rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Wildcats. However, despite receiving 88% of bets we've seen Kansas State remain frozen at -2 or even dip to -1.5 at some shops. This signals smart money grabbing the points with Florida Atlantic, triggering a sharp line freeze and some reverse line movement on the dog. Florida Atlantic is only receiving 12% of bets, providing massive contrarian value. Ken Pom has Florida Atlantic winning the game by one point (74-73). He also has FAU ranked higher (17th vs 20th). FAU has the superior three point shooting (37% vs 34%) and better rebounding (36 RPG vs 32 RPG).


8:30 p.m. ET: Connecticut (-2, 153.5) vs Gonzaga

Connecticut (28-8) is the 4-seed and just brushed aside Arkansas 88-65 in the Sweet 16, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Gonzaga (31-5) is the 3-seed and just edged UCLA 79-76, covering as 1-point favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is all over UConn laying the short spread. However, despite receiving 70% of bets, Connecticut hasn't budged off the opener of -2. This signals a sharp line freeze on Gonzaga, with oddsmakers refusing to adjust the line due to liability on the dog. Gonzaga is only receiving 30% of bets, giving the Bulldogs rare contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game. Gonzaga has the edge on offense (87 PPG vs 79 PPG), field goal shooting (53% vs 47%), and three-point shooting (39% vs 36%). Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 153 to 153.5. The over is receiving 67% of bets but 82% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. Both of these teams are "over" teams this season, with Gonzaga 21-14 to the over and Connecticut 20-16 to the over. 


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