Friday Sweet 16 Sharp Report

March 24, 2023 01:23 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's Sweet 16 action...


7:15 p.m. ET: Miami vs Houston (-7.5, 138)

Miami (27-7) is the 5-seed and just took down Indiana 85-69 in the second round, winning outright a 1.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Houston (33-3) is the 1-seed and just crushed Auburn 81-64 in the second round, easily covering as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 7-point favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and they've rushed to the window to grab the points with Miami. However, despite 70% of bets taking the points with Miami we've actually seen this line move further to Houston -7 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston, with pros laying the points with the contrarian favorite and fading the trendy dog Hurricanes. Ken Pom has Houston winning by eight points (75-67). Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 139 to 138. The under is receiving 36% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp contrarian under discrepancy. 


9:45 p.m. ET: Xavier vs Texas (-4.5, 149) 

Xavier (27-9) is the 3-seed and just edged Pittsburgh 84-73, covering as 5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Texas (28-8) is the 2-seed and just outlasted Penn State 71-66, pushing as 5-point favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 4-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this even bet split we've seen Texas move from -4 to -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this line move was driven by respected money laying the points with the Longhorns. Texas is receiving 50% of bets but 63% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Pros are also expecting a higher scoring game, steaming the total up from 148 to 149. The over is only receiving 39% of bets but 59% of money, a notable sharp contrarian over discrepancy. Xavier is 23-13 to the over this season. Both teams are averaging roughly 80 PPG on offense. Both teams rank top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency. 


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