Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s March Madness opening round action …
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7:25 p.m. ET: Drake vs Miami (-2, 146.5)
This Midwest Region showdown features 12-seed Drake (27-7) against 5-seed Miami (25-7). The line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Miami, the bigger name school laying the short number. However, despite receiving 62% of bets we’ve seen Miami fall from -3 to -2. This signals smart money grabbing the points with Drake, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Drake has value as a contrarian play (38% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game. Ken Pom has Miami winning by two points (75-73). March Madness dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 65-46 ATS (59%) since 2018. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 147.5 to 146.5. Drake is on the slower end in terms of tempo (66.4 possessions per game).
9:20 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic vs Memphis (-1.5, 153)
This East Region matchup features 9-seed Florida Atlantic (31-3) against 8-seed Memphis (26-8). The line opened with Memphis listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Memphis. However, despite receiving 76% of bets Memphis has tumbled from -3 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for Memphis to cover when they public is already hammering the favorite to begin with? Because smart money has sided with Florida Atlantic, triggering a notable adjustment in their favor. Florida Atlantic is receiving 24% of bets and 44% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Ken Pom has Memphis winning by one point (77-76), which means FAU still has value plus the hook. Sharps also expect a higher scoring game here, as they’ve steamed the total up from 150 to 153.
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