Early March Madness Sharp Report

March 13, 2023 12:54 AM

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You can also track our VSiN Betting Splits for every NCAA Tournament game as well. 

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for the opening round of March Madness...

Charleston vs. San Diego State (-5.5, 141.5)

This South Region matchup pits 12-seed Charleston (31-3) against 5-seed San Diego State (27-6). Charleston just beat UNC Wilmington 63-58 to win the CAA Championship. Meanwhile, San Diego State just beat Utah State 62-57 to win the Mountain West championship. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public (65% of bets) is grabbing the points with Charleston. However, we've seen this line move further in favor of San Diego State -4.5 to -5.5. This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and instead backing the contrarian favorite. Ken Pom has San Diego State winning by six points (74-68). He has San Diego State ranked 14th and Charleston 73rd. The under is receiving 59% of bets but 93% of money, a massive sharp under discrepancy. 

West Virginia (-2.5, 140) vs. Maryland

This South Region matchup features 9-seed West Virginia (19-14) against 8-seed Maryland (21-12). West Virginia just fell to Kansas 78-61 in the Big 12 quarterfinals. On the other hand, Maryland just fell to Indiana 70-60 in the Big Ten quarterfinals. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the 9-seed favored over the 8-seed? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Pros have taken the fishy side, steaming West Virginia up from -2 to -2.5. The Mountaineers are receiving 57% of bets and 65% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has West Virginia winning the game by one point (72-71). He has West Virginia ranked 17th and Maryland 22nd. The under is receiving 56% of bets and 79% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. Maryland is one of the slower teams in college hoops (64.6 possessions per game).

Drake vs. Miami (-2.5, 147.5)

This Midwest Region clash features 12-seed Drake (27-7) against 5-seed Miami (25-7). Drake just beat Bradley 77-51 to win the MVP championship. On the flip side, Miami just fell to Duke 85-78 in the ACC semifinals. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Currently 55% of bets are laying the points with Miami. However, despite this public support we've seen Miami fall from -3.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Drake, with pros grabbing the points with the dog. Ken Pom has Miami winning by two points (75-73). He has Miami ranked 40th and Drake 66th. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 82% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Drake plays at a slow tempo (66.4 possessions per game). 

VSiN College Basketball Links

Previews of all First-Round Games

Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines

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Peterson’s Daily CBB Podcast

VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast

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