Early Final Four Sharp Report

March 27, 2023 02:06 AM

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In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for the Final Four...


Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State (-2, 131.5)

Florida Atlantic (35-3) is the Cinderella 9-seed and just took down Kansas State 79-76 in the Elite 8, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. Similarly, San Diego State (31-6) is the 5-seed and just upset Creighton 57-56, winning outright as 1-point dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is split right down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, a closer look at the spread shows some liability on Florida Atlantic, as the line has either stayed the same or dipped from San Diego State -2 to -1.5. Dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 84-64 ATS (57%) in March Madness since 2018. Ken Pom has San Diego State winning by one point (67-66), providing actionable value on FAU at the current dog price. FAU has the better offense (78 PPG vs 71 PPG), better field goal shooting (47% vs 44%) and better three point shooting (37% vs 35%). Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total form 132.5 to 131.5. The under is receiving 43% of bets but 66% of money, a sharp contrarian under discrepancy. 


Miami vs Connecticut (-5.5, 149.5)

Miami (29-7) is the 5-seed and just upset Texas 88-81 in the Elite 8, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. On the other hand, Connecticut (29-8) is the 4-seed and just crushed Gonzaga 82-54, easily covering as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 5-point favorite. A combination of respected money and slight public support (60% of bets) has driven UConn up from -5 to -5.5. Ken Pom has Connecticut winning by seven points (80-73). Ken Pom has Connecticut ranked 1st and Miami 22nd. UConn also ranks much higher in adjusted defense (11th vs 104th). The total hasn't moved off the opener of 149.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 80 PPG and both rank top 5 in adjusted offense. The over is receiving 76% of bets and 80% of money, signaling both heavy public and sharp support. 

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