Thursday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 9, 2023 02:45 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can visit the VSiN Betting Splits page for every game as well.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's College Basketball slate...


2 p.m. ET: George Mason vs Saint Louis (-4, 140.5)

This is the Atlantic 10 quarterfinal. George Mason (20-12) has won seven straight games and just beat Richmond 62-57 yesterday, covering as 3-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Saint Louis (20-11) is coming off a bye and went 4-2 down the stretch, beating Dayton 65-61 and covering as 1-point home favorites in their regular season finale. This line opened with Saint Louis listed as a short 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, steaming Saint Louis up from -2.5 to -4. Saint Louis is receiving 66% of bets but 85% of money, signaling both sharp and public support. Ken Pom has Saint Louis winning by three points (73-70). He has Saint Louis ranked 103rd and George Mason 138th. Saint Louis has the edge offensively (75 PPG vs 69 PPG). Sharps are also leaning under, dropping the total from 140.5 to 140 at some shops. The under is receiving 56% of bets but 87% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy. George Mason is 20-12 to the under this season. These teams met back on January 11th and Saint Louis won 63-62. 


7 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs Virginia (-2, 129.5)

This is the ACC quarterfinal. North Carolina (20-12) has won four of their last five games and just crushed Boston College 85-61 yesterday, covering as 10.5-point neutral site favorites. On the flip side, Virginia (23-6, ranked 13th) is coming off a bye and has won their last two games, beating Louisville 75-60 in their regular season finale but failing to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Virginia listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, despite these even percentages we've seen Virginia move from -1 to -2. This signals pro money laying the short chalk with Virginia. Ken Pom has Virginia winning by one point (67-66). He has Virginia ranked 37th and North Carolina 42nd. Virginia has the better defense (allowing 61 PPG vs 71 PPG) and the better shooting (45% vs 43%). Sharp have also hit the over, raising the total from 128.5 to 129.5. 

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