Friday College Basketball Sharp Report

March 10, 2023 01:10 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can track VSiN Betting Splits for every game as well.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's College Basketball action...


7 p.m. ET: Duke (-2.5, 144.5) vs Miami

This is the ACC semifinal. Duke (24-8, ranked 21st) has won seven straight and just crushed Pittsburgh 96-69 in yesterday's quarterfinal, easily covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Miami (25-6, ranked 14th) has won nine of their last ten games and just edged Wake Forest 74-72 in yesterday's quarterfinals, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with Duke listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the short points with Duke. However, despite receiving 60% of bets, we've seen Duke fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals smart money grabbing the points with Miami. Ken Pom has Duke winning by two points (74-72). Miami has the better offense (80 PPG vs 72 PPG) and shooting (49% vs 44%).


9:30 p.m. ET: Wichita State vs Tulane (-2, 150.5)

This is the AAC quarterfinal. Wichita State (17-14) is coming off an 81-63 win over Tulsa is yesterday's first round, covering as 16-point favorites. Meanwhile, Tulane (19-10) is coming off a bye and finished the regular season with two straight wins, beating Temple 83-82 in the regular season finale but failing to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tulane listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Pros have laid the short chalk, steaming Tulane up from -1 to -2. Currently 57% of bets but 85% of money is backing Tulane, signaling a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Ken Pom has Tulane winning by one point (76-75). Tulane has a big edge offensively (81 PPG vs 71 PPG) and in the shooting department (47% vs 45%). Tulane also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (12-17) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (16-13-2). Pros have leaned under, dropping the total from 151.5 to 150.5. The under is receiving 72% of bets but 96% of money, indicating heavy under action. 

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